Severe Weather Season Kicking Off
After a hot day, scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Weather models that have a good handle on the weather across the Upper Great Lakes, Midwest, and Mid-Mississippi River Valley regions are in agreement that thunderstorms should develop across our area late today.
Before we get to the storms, however, it will be a taste of summer today, with most areas near or slightly above 80 degrees.
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Thin clouds will filter some of the sunshine but should not have much of an impact on our thunderstorm potential.
The first thunderstorms are likely to develop over western New York and western Pennsylvania around 4 or 5 PM. These will quickly strengthen as they move eastward into a favorable environment for severe weather.
The greatest thunderstorm threat will be between 5-9 PM, with western areas on the early end of that range, and eastern areas on the later end.
Multiple rounds of storms are possible in some areas. Other areas, however, may sneak between storm clusters and miss out on most of the action.
Corridors of intense thunderstorms will bring a risk for areas of damaging winds, possibly leading to some locally lengthy power outages.
A tornado or two may also be possible with some newer experimental machine learning weather models highlighting our area with higher than usual probabilities.
Hail will likely be the lowest concern, though some locally large hail in excess of an inch will be possible.
Of course, frequent lightning and brief torrential downpours are likely. Flash flooding is not much of concern, however, even in areas that see multiple thunderstorms.
The uncertainties I expressed yesterday are waning, and while I still do not think it will be as widespread of an event as some severe weather events we see, I do think it will be a higher end event overall.
I am expecting to activate a live blog this afternoon and continue into the early evening with unparalleled, up to the second, interactive storm coverage for the Finger Lakes.
In these live blogs, I post and analyze the latest warnings, often before the TV can even get them displayed.
An interactive chat allows me to answer your questions, gives me live feedback from others who are seeing the storms, and allows you to learn from your neighbors across the region as well.
The Live Storm Blog is one of the most useful, important things I do.
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Beyond the Storms
As thunderstorms move east and wind down this evening, a cold front will push through the area. Temperatures will go from the 60s and 70s this evening to near 40 degrees by Wednesday morning.
Early clouds Wednesday morning will give way to sunshine for the afternoon. Temperatures will only manage the mid 50s for a high.
Thin clouds will begin to move in early Thursday after a morning low in the mid 30s. South winds will team up with the filtered sunshine to jump temperatures all the way to the low and mid 70s.
Late Thursday, a few scattered showers are expected. These may continue into the evening hours.
Scattered showers are likely on Friday as well, accompanied by some thunderstorms during the midday and early afternoon. Severe thunderstorm chances are low, but not quite zero, so it will be something to watch for.
Low pressure will pass by on Saturday, bringing widespread rain to the area for at least part of the day. Temperatures will take another hit, topping out in the mid 50s again.
High pressure should build in quickly, producing a sunny day on Sunday and possibly into Monday as well.
Sunday will still be a bit cool with most areas sticking to the 50s. Monday should rise into the 60s.
Temperatures next week should rise at least a bit higher, but the precipitation chances are uncertain, which in turn degrades confidence in the temperature forecast.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
KellyDoolittle
Do you think the finger Lakes region will be hit as strong as the western region, Drew?
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Yes, in fact I think our chances are a bit higher, especially for corridors of wind damage. The hail/tornado threat may be a bit higher in WNY as the storms start developing as supercells, then grow into line segments over our area. But there may still be embedded super cell structures that could lead to a hail and tornado threat here as well.