Early Week Weather
A large area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to sit and spin over the Ohio River Valley region, resulting in more wet weather for us.
The area is relatively quiet this morning, however, with just a few stray showers showing up on radar so far. This will continue to be the case through the morning and even into the early afternoon hours.
Skies will likely remain rather cloudy, but a few breaks of sun here and there will be possible.
Southeast winds will increase to 10-15 mph. With the sunshine, temperatures will rise to near or slightly above 70 degrees for many areas.
By the mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will start to pop up, increasing in coverage. Most of the thunderstorms should be weak, but a few gusty winds will be possible.
Gradually, the scattered showers and storms will combine into a broad area of widespread rain associated with a bundle of atmospheric energy rotating around the upper level low.
Models are split on the location of this widespread area of rain, with some bringing it overhead while others pass it mainly to our east and north.
Given that the models tend to struggle in these types of patterns, it is difficult to say which camp will end up being right. So, if you have plans for the late afternoon and evening hours, expect rain of some sort and don’t be surprised if it is another round of steady rain.
Clouds and possible rain showers overnight will keep temperatures in the 50s.
Tuesday will follow a very similar pattern with mainly quiet weather through the morning followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
The atmosphere will be a bit more supportive of severe wind gusts and hail in thunderstorms tomorrow, but these should still remain isolated, with most areas not seeing severe weather.
By Wednesday, the upper level low will be on the move, passing through our area with scattered rain showers. Winds will turn to the northwest as it heads past us, holding temperatures Wednesday in the mid 60s.
Unlike today and tomorrow, the rain showers on Wednesday will be possible throughout the day, but should remain quite scattered and light.
Cool and Rainy
We may get a brief reprieve from the rain on Thursday, at least during the daytime hours.
Skies will remain rather cloudy, and a few spits of rain cannot be totally ruled out. But, Thursday does look like the driest day of the week overall.
It will be a cool day, with a steady but light north wind holding afternoon temperatures to the mid 50s.
Rain showers will start to build back in Thursday night as a second large, slow-moving low pressure system heads our way.
The clouds and showers should hold temperatures in the 40s Thursday night. If the low is delayed and any clearing takes hold, there could be some frost concerns, though. While unlikely, it is worth mentioning at this point, given the overall pattern uncertainty.
Rainy weather is likely Friday and Saturday. The fine details are, of course, uncertain this far in advance, but meaningful dry time is not looking very likely.
Friday will also have highs in the mid 50s with a slight increase to the low 60s on Saturday.
By Sunday or Monday, our pattern should undergo a significant shift.
Instead of lots of rain, much of next week looks dry. Temperatures will also be on the rise, adding a few degrees each day with 70s by the second half of the week.
Eventually, toward next weekend, it will probably get warm and humid enough that at least some stray afternoon showers and storms will pop up.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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