Occasional showers and storms the next few days

End of Week Storms

Warm and slightly muggy air will push back into the Finger Lakes starting today and persisting through Saturday.

An active weather pattern upstream across the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will send waves of energy and thunderstorm remnants at us, resulting in some unsettled weather of our own.

Of the next three days, today will probably be the quietest of the days.

Clouds are over the area this morning but should allow some sunshine through by the midday and afternoon hours.

A few isolated showers and light thunderstorms will pop up as temperatures push into the 70s. The best chance for rain will be between 3-9 PM. Not all areas will see rain today.

Any thunderstorms that pop up should be limited to an occasional clap of thunder and some briefly heavier rain.

Once the showers and storms dissipate in the cooling evening air, the remainder of the overnight should be quiet with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A line of thunderstorms from the Midwest will enter the area early Friday morning but will be weakening and dissipating as it does so. How much of this system is left as it rolls through is uncertain and may have a role in what we see later in the day.

More rain or a later arrival time would reduce the chances of additional showers and storms in the afternoon. Earlier or less rain could allow ample time for the atmosphere to recharge.

However, even if the atmosphere does recharge, there will not be much to tap into that energy in the afternoon to trigger additional storms. It will likely come down to subtle boundaries left behind by the morning system.

As you can see, it is a highly complex set up dealing with small differences in the atmosphere that could make a large difference in the forecast.

I am currently expecting a middle of the road scenario in the morning, with rain for most areas in the early to mid-morning, but weakening and becoming lighter across the Eastern Finger Lakes.

During the afternoon, I foresee a few isolated showers and storms popping up during the mid to late afternoon, mainly over the eastern half of the region.

Since temperatures will be pushing toward 80 degrees and dewpoints into the mid 60s, any storms that do end up forming could have frequent lightning, some small hail, and some gusty winds.

Weekend Transition

Saturday may end up being the best chance for showers and storms across the region, though it too has its share of complexities.

Like tomorrow, there may be some leftover clouds and showers in the morning from storms upstream the previous night. The chances for this are probably lower than they are on Friday, with the focal of the severe weather the prior night being further south.

There will also be more of a triggering mechanism on Saturday as a cold front moves through the area.

As a limiting factor, the atmosphere will not be quite as juiced up, with highs in the mid 70s and dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Still, there may be a few stronger afternoon storms if everything comes together properly.

Winds will turn blustery and chilly behind the front on Sunday. Northwest gusts over 35 mph will be possible, limiting how far temperatures can climb during the day. After morning lows around 50 degrees, most areas will fail to reach 60 degrees during the afternoon.

Rain showers will be possible with a small chance for some steadier rain, particularly in the northeastern Finger Lakes, as some atmospheric energy rotates around the departing low pressure system associated with Saturday’s cold front.

Cool weather will settle in for a stay with highs Monday and Tuesday struggling to even reach the mid 50s.

Skies should remain cloudy with a few stray spits of rain, but low chances for widespread or prolonged rain.

As long as skies remain cloudy at night, temperatures should mainly remain in the 40s. However, if skies clear, there could be a chance for patchy frost. Continue to monitor the forecasts for Monday and Tuesday night if you have cold sensitive plants in the ground.

The latter half of next week doesn’t look a whole lot warmer, though the chances for rain should increase again, reducing the risk for frost.

As a whole, the second half of May is looking quite cool with continued unsettled weather.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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