Tracking Smoke and Air Quality
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will keep our weather fair today, though it will help pull some smoke into the area.
Hazy sunshine will mix with some occasional clouds today.
So far this morning, air quality is still in decent shape, with Air Quality Index values in the lowest two categories, green and yellow.
Taking the atmosphere as a whole, the smoke will be most plentiful early this morning. However, the smoke will likely settle lower in the atmosphere during the midday and early afternoon.
It will not be as surface concentrated as last weekend, but the air quality will probably decrease a bit more before it gets better later in the afternoon.
Some places may end up in the next level, orange, for a time. Orange is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups, but should not pose a problem for most people.
Otherwise, it will be a quiet and warm day. Highs will be around 80 degrees, with some of the typically warmer areas a bit above 80, and the typically cooler areas a bit below.
A couple of models try to pop up a stray shower or two this afternoon. I don’t think this happens, but if it does, any rain will be extremely isolated, short-lived, and light.
There is a better, but still very small, chance for a stray shower or two tonight as a weak frontal boundary slides through.
Smoke may increase again behind the front tomorrow morning, coming a bit lower in the atmosphere than this morning. Air quality will need to be monitored again but should improve during the afternoon hours.
Generally dry conditions are expected tomorrow as well with sun and clouds mixing with the smoke.
Northwest winds will cool temperatures a bit compared to today with highs ranging from the low 70s near Lake Ontario to the upper 70s to near 80 in the valleys of the Southern Tier. Most areas will end up in the mid 70s.
Weekend Weather Forecast
The weather has the potential to become a bit more unsettled Friday and into the weekend, but forecast confidence is lower than usual.
The weather systems passing through will be weak and localized. Computer models do a poor job more than a day or two out in these types of situations, and sure enough, there is little continuity between one run of a model and the next.
Generally speaking, the chances for rain have been trending downward, especially for Saturday. Friday and Saturday both may still have some showers about, but neither day is looking like a washout.
Exactly how the rain chances will play out should become more clear in the coming days, but if you have outdoor plans, I would not be rushing to change them at this point.
Temperatures will stick to the mid 70s on Friday but should dip a bit lower this weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the low 70s.
Rain chances are even more uncertain Sunday into Monday, but once again overall do not look too impactful.
Increasing temperatures are likely next week, with the second half of the week turning out quite warm and muggy. Thunderstorm chances will need to be monitored in such an environment.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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