Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain
An area of low pressure moving east across the southern Great Lakes will run up against a stronger high pressure system digging in across New England.
This presents a classic situation where warm incoming air clashes with the cold air and is forced to rise up and over the cold at the surface.
The result is an outbreak of precipitation and an icy mix of precipitation types.
This is also a situation where many weather models typically underestimate the intrusion of warm air aloft, and thus the amount of sleet and freezing rain. Forecasts that display raw or blended model data (which is most forecasts these days) frequently end up overestimating snow amounts, sometimes significantly.
That being said, it is always a tricky task sorting out precipitation types, and the smallest subtle shifts can have a dramatic impact on what falls from the sky.
So, here is what I think will happen, as well as some reasonable alternatives to be aware of. In the end, whether snow or ice, travel will be difficult this afternoon and tonight. If reasonable, my blanket advice is complete travel before 3 PM today or delay until after 8 AM tomorrow.
Precipitation will start to break out as some snow showers during the late morning and early afternoon, but should not start to become widespread or heavy until the mid and late afternoon. As this happens, sleet will quickly take over as the primary precipitation type across the region.
The most likely areas to stay snow this afternoon will be around and north of Syracuse. Meanwhile, some parts of the western Southern Tier may turn to freezing rain.
The bulk of the heavy precipitation will fall in the late afternoon and early evening hours. The sleet-snow line may wobble a bit, coming further southwest into the northeastern Finger Lakes. Right along this line is where the heaviest precipitation will fall.
If the warm air aloft is a bit lacking, which again is not the typical result of these setups, a stripe of heavy snow amounts over 6 inches will be possible somewhere in the northeastern half of the Finger Lakes. Again, though, I am not expecting that as the most likely outcome.
Snow should take over as the main precipitation type during the late evening and early overnight hours. While steady, the snow rates will be much lighter than what falls earlier in the evening.
The areas most likely to hold on to an icy mix before precipitation ends will be areas west of Elmira in the Southern Tier.
A few flurries may linger into the predawn and early morning hours Saturday, but conditions should be quickly improving. Once road crews are able to clean up, travel Saturday should be easy going.
Sleet does not accumulate in the same way as snow and ends up as a packed, heavy coating. Sleet amounts today and tonight will vary between a half and one and a half (0.5-1.5) inches. An inch or two of snow on top of that overnight will be possible.
Again, if the snow wins out over the sleet, localized amounts over 6 inches will be possible. On the flip side, if warm air wins out significantly, snow accumulations will be minimal, and parts of the southwestern half of the region could see ice accretion amounts of a tenth of an inch or even more.
To summarize: these setups are notorious for over-estimating snow amounts; there will be a very fine line between sleet and heavy snow potential; and no matter how it all plays out, travel will be a mess.
Looking Beyond Today
Travel concerns for the rest of the weekend will be minimal.
Saturday will be mostly cloudy with no additional precipitation once any early morning flurries dissipate.
Sunday will also be cloudy with no precipitation until late in the day. This should mostly fall as rain, though some pockets of freezing rain may briefly exist in the higher elevations of the eastern Finger Lakes.
Rain will persist into early Monday as temperatures rise into the 40s overnight. Cold air will start to return, however, and by the end of Monday, snow showers are expected.
Tuesday is not looking like a nice day for travel plans with a high chance for locally heavy lake effect snow and widespread strong winds. Blowing snow may reduce visibility substantially and keep roads snow covered in the lake effect areas.
Lake effect snow will continue into Wednesday and even Thursday but generally does not look as strong or widespread. The areas most likely to see snow also becomes less certain.
Temperatures will be sliding down through next week. By Thursday, highs may not escape the 10s. Typical January cold is favored beyond the turn of the year as well.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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