Everything remains on track with the winter storm that will impact our area Sunday and Monday.
Active Weather Updates
As of Saturday morning, there have not been any significant changes to what is expected on Sunday.
As per my one-snow-map policy, I will not be changing my snow map. My forecast remains for 12-18” inches across the majority region, with a few pockets of higher and a few pockets of lower amounts.
Monday is becoming a bit more clear as the short-range models are now simulating out that far.
I find that the snow tends to linger a bit longer than expected sometimes with these types of systems, undoubtedly because of extra influence from the Great Lakes that the models do not always capture well.
Snow that falls on Monday will be lighter, but could remain steady at times, especially in the morning and midday hours. Some places may pick up a couple more inches.
Equally important will be the increase in winds coming in from the northwest. Top gusts should be 30-35 mph during the afternoon hours.
These winds will cause blowing and drifting and subzero wind chills. Travel will remain difficult in many areas with temperatures remaining in the 10s, keeping road salt inefficient at best and completely ineffective at worst.
It may not be as bad as it will be at times on Sunday, but if you have the flexibility to not travel on Monday, I would advise to do just that. If you do need to go out, be sure to allow for extra time, slow down, and maybe pack a few emergency supplies, just in case.
When will the snow start?
Sometimes the models struggle a bit with the onset of the snow, often times having a late bias. Most models are showing the first snowflakes moving in from the south around sunrise and flying everywhere in the Finger Lakes by mid-morning. I would not be surprised if that projection needs to be bumped up an hour or two, reading more like just before sunrise and through the early morning. The bottom line is that there will be very little to no time for getting out and about Sunday morning.
When will it get bad?
With the cold temperatures, as soon as it starts to snow, it will start to coat the roads. Travel will become increasingly slick through the morning.
The heaviest snow is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. This is the most likely time to see the micro-banding of the snow that could produce snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour or more.
As I stated above, it may remain hazardous well into Monday with the lighter, lingering snow and gusty winds.
How bad will it really be?
Considering just the snow amounts, this is the type of storm we get probably 3 or 4 times every 5 years. Significant, but not one for the record books. In recent memory, storms in December 2020 and March 2017 will remain ahead of this one in terms of snow and overall impacts.
One thing that makes this storm a bit more concerning that the “average” yearly winter storm is the deep cold. That will make treating the roads more difficult and will pose more of a risk when outside for any reason.
Looking wider at the storm system as a whole, it is a very large and powerful storm that will be long remembered. This storm is impacting hundred of millions of people from New Mexico to the Carolinas to Maine with heavy snow, ice, and cold. Many of these areas are much less capable and used to this type of winter weather than we are.
When will it end?
As stated above, snow may linger well into Monday, eventually transitioning to a lake effect snow event southeast of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon and night.
This snow band is expected to be mainly over Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties. Some of these areas, including Syracuse, could see another 6-10 inches or locally more through Tuesday morning. The band will then lift north, and Tuesday morning should be dry throughout the region. Note that this lake effect snow is NOT included on the snow map, which is only for snow through 9am Monday.
The gusty winds Monday will also extend into Monday evening before gradually reducing speeds overnight.
I think I missed the Snow Map? Where is it?
You can find the map in last evening’s weather update post by clicking here.
What will the snow be like?
This will be a light, fluffy snow. Easier to shovel… but also easier for the winds to blow around on Monday.
Any warming temperatures in sight?
High temperatures throughout next week will stick to the lower half of the 10s and occasionally single digits. Our first real shot at reaching 20 degrees may not be until next Monday, though most of that week looks to have highs well into the 20s.
Will I get a snow day/my flight be canceled/lose power?
Superintendents and school administrators have many things to consider when deciding to delay or close school. It isn’t a job I would want to have! As such, I don’t try to guess what they are thinking as they weigh these options.
Air travel is a giant web of interconnections across the nation and the globe. The weather in one area can have a ripple effect that impacts other areas that are sunny and dry. Now, with a storm of this scale, air travel will be highly impacted. But it isn’t a question I can really answer.
Likewise, I am no expert on the power grid and how storm impacts elsewhere and increased usage from the cold may impact your stream of electricity. Purely based on the weather, light winds should keep the lights on Sunday, and I would expect only very localized, if any, power problems on Monday when the winds are stronger.
I have a question not about school, air travel, power outages, or how much snow my house will see:
You can Ask Drew! for a quick and personalized answer.
How can I best measure snow?
Taking measurements about every 6 hours is ideal, clearing your measuring area after each measurement. At the end of the event, add up the different 6-hour increments for the event total. This will prevent an under-measurement as the snow compacts. Measurements every 6 hours is the weather observer standard.
Measuring on a white piece of wood or plastic (a snowboard) is ideal, but any hard, non-pavement surface will do. Pavement is less idea because it holds heat in, leading to extra melting and compaction. Honestly, though, for this storm with the prolonged cold we have, measuring on a driveway is probably just fine.
Be wary of influences from wind! Measuring in a sheltered location is best… but don’t forget to look up, too. Trees can negatively impact measurements, too. Taking multiple measurements each time you measure and taking an average will increase accuracy. Let me know what you are measuring!
When is your next update?
I may post an occasional update on Sunday if I see something interesting or especially important. And I will probably post some sort of update for Monday’s weather Sunday afternoon or evening. Monday morning I will have a post detailing the weather next week. And after that, I should be back into the normal rhythm of evening planning posts for the next day, and morning outlook posts for the next several days.
I highly encourage you to sign up for my simple, free email service which sends out a brief email with a link each time I post. Sign up here. Do not rely on social media, which prioritized hyped up posts that drive engagement and not clear, calm, sensible posts like mine.
Please stay safe!
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