Temperatures will remain steady this week with highs in the 10s and lows ranging through the single digits and occasionally dipping below zero with some occasional snow showers.
Before getting to the rest of the forecast, I want to acknowledge that, as a whole, yes… the storm underperformed. This was a problem for the local meteorological community at large and exposes (or reinforces) some serious flaws in the models when it comes to winter storms.
I will be collecting more data today as reports come in, but as I mentioned Friday and again yesterday afternoon, snowflake structure is likely the biggest factor in this.
I’ll do my best to publish more on this come the afternoon.
Monday
What: Areas of snow tapering to snow showers. Winds increasing this afternoon
Where: Lingering longest in the northeastern FLX, where some afternoon and early evening lake effect will kick in.
Impacts: Varied.
Snow will continue to come and go today. Over time, the snow showers will become less frequent. Most areas will see minimal additional accumulation, but the northeastern Finger, and particularly Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties may see several inches.
Winds will pick up this afternoon with occasional gusts over 30 mph. Areas prone to blowing and drifting will see continued messy roads.
» For more details on Monday’s weather, see the Monday Weather Planner.
Tuesday
What: Some light snow showers.
Impacts: Minimal
A small bundle of atmospheric energy will pass through the area, producing some scattered snow showers. Most of these should be light with minimal accumulation. The snow will be most likely during the midday and afternoon hours.
Temperatures will start the day ranging through the single digits. Afternoon highs will be in the low and mid 10s. Winds will be lighter than today, coming in from the southwest at around 10 mph.
Wednesday
What: A few scattered snow showers.
Impacts: None
West-southwest winds will keep the lake effect snow generally outside of the Finger Lakes. A few occasional flurries may be possible here and there, but with no accumulation or impacts.
Wind speeds will be similar to or slightly stronger than Tuesday. Temperatures will remain similar with lows in the low and mid single digits and highs in the low and mid 10s.
Thursday
What: A spray of lake effect snow showers
Impacts: Minor
A cold front will turn winds to the northwest on Thursday. Snow showers along the front and from lake effect behind it will be common, but generally light. Localized areas may see a few inches, but most should see an inch or less.
Wind speeds will be 10-15 mph and daytime highs will mainly be in the low 10s. Wind chills may drop below zero during the afternoon.
Friday
What: A few snow showers
Impacts: None/Minor
Light northwest flow will continue to bring in a few localized snow showers off Lake Ontario. Locally an inch or two of fluffy snow will be possible near Lake Ontario, but impacts will be minor at most.
Temperatures will have a good chance of falling below zero for many areas Friday morning, though near Lake Ontario and under the lake effect clouds, it will be less likely. Afternoon highs will only be around 10 degrees.
Weekend & Beyond
Early models are trying to produce a coastal storm this weekend. I’ve already been seeing hype about it on social media since late last week. Based on the current model data, we have a 1 in 7 or less chance of seeing anything substantial. So be wary of the hype, know I am watching it, but at this point, I’m not overly concerned.
Temperatures should start to moderate slightly next week. Daily highs should start to get back into the 20s, and a few mornings may manage to stay above 10 degrees. However, the chances for any substantial warming or getting above the freezing mark look almost nonexistent. Long range models have been persistent that a cold February awaits.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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