Deep cold persists through the week

Very cold weather will continue to hang on throughout the week, running the total of consecutive days under 20 degrees to over a week.

I did a little digging to see how this stretch of cold compared to the historic record. Depending on the location, the longest runs of sub-20 degree weather in our weather are around 11 or 12 days. The longest streaks occurred either in February 1979 or January 1961.

However, we aren’t total strangers to this cold. The second longest streak at 8 days occurred across all of the stations I looked at just a few years ago in late December/early January 2018.

Our current stretch of cold weather probably will not quite break any of the records, but will likely eclipse the 2018 mark and settle in as the second longest such stretch.

Now, to the day-to-day details.

Tuesday

What: A few snow showers

Impacts: None

A weak disturbance will spread some insignificant snow showers into the area, especially during the midday and afternoon hours. These should then depart this evening. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

Temperatures will be in the low and mid 10s with winds from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

» For a more detailed look at today’s weather, see the Weather Planner post.

Tuesday Overnight-Early Wednesday Morning

What: A brief period of lake effect snow

Where: Northeastern Finger Lakes, especially Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties, but also some areas further south.

Impacts: Varied

A band of lake effect snow will develop late this evening and overnight along the south shore of Lake Ontario and will sag south toward the Thruway corridor. For a time during the predawn and early morning hours, snow may come even further south, impacting northern Seneca, southern Cayuga, northeastern Tompkins, and Cortland counties. A localized inch or two will be possible in these areas, with 1-4 inches generally along and north of the Thruway in Wayne and Cayuga counties and throughout Onondaga County.

Elsewhere, skies will be clearing out with lows dropping toward 0. Where the clouds and snow hold, lows will be in the upper half of the 0s to around 10 degrees.

The rest of Wednesday

What: Sun and clouds. A few late flurries.

Impacts: None

Winds will turn to the southwest early Wednesday morning, removing the lake effect from the area. Sunshine will spread northward to take its place, though clouds will increase again in the afternoon. A few flurries off Lake Erie will be possible during the later half of the afternoon and into the evening with little to no accumulation.

Winds will around or under 10 mph with daytime highs in the low and mid 10s.

Thursday-Saturday

What: Lake snows south/southeast of Lake Ontario

Impacts: Minor/Low

Northerly flow will set up for the end of the week and first part of the weekend, keeping areas of lake effect snow in the picture. Thursday and Friday look like the snow will be more southeast of the lake in the usual areas, while Saturday may send the snow further south and west. This looks like the type of set up that doesn’t appear to be too impactful, but over the course of three days, a few locations could see some moderate accumulations. I’ll have more details on these days each as they get closer.

Cold air will also be reinforced by the northerly flow. Thursday and Friday night will both have a chance for widespread sub-zero temperatures, though there will be warmer pockets that stay above zero. High temperatures Friday will remain in the 0s for most areas.

Sunday-Monday

What: Quiet (most likely), a bit less cold

Impacts: Lifting spirits?

Low pressure is expected to develop along the East Coast this weekend. Current projections take this system mainly out to sea… but the models tend to have a south and east bias at this point. I would not be surprised to see some snow inland along the coast, but it would take a pretty big shift to bring snow this far. There are still one or two models that try to do so, so it is too early to totally discount the possibility. But it is not what I am expecting.

Instead, if the low does take a more seaward route, we could be in for a quiet and sunny day on Sunday. For now, I’ve got a mix of sun and clouds in the forecast with similar for Monday. Temperatures will remain in the 10s on Sunday but should break into the 20s on Monday.

Next Week

Temperatures look like they will mainly stay in the 20s for daytime highs next week. The first half of the week looks quiet, while the models for the second half of the week look a bit noisy. This means the overall pattern may be conducive for some active weather, but it is far, far too early to pinpoint any specific threats.