Today’s weather will be quiet, but snow will increase Friday afternoon ahead of an arctic cold front that will bring hazardous combinations of wind, cold, and some snow this weekend.
Thursday
What: Morning flurries, afternoon sun
Impacts: Minor
Some areas of light, fluffy lake effect snow are ongoing across the region this morning. This snow is not expected to cause many issues and should taper off throughout the morning hours. A few places may get a very fluffy inch or so—the kind of snow that can be swept with a broom as easily as it can be shoveled.
Outside of and after the lake effect, sun and clouds will spread across the region, similar to yesterday. Winds will remain light and temperatures will reach the low 20s.
For more details on today’s weather, check out the Weather Planner post from last night.
Friday Morning & Midday
What: Mostly cloudy but quiet
Impacts: None
The first half of the day on Friday should be cloudy but quiet. Light south winds ahead of the approaching cold front will mean lows in the 10s and temperatures rising into the 20s by midday.
Friday Afternoon & Evening
What: Widespread snow
Impacts: Minor before sunset, low after
Snow will overspread the area during the early to mid afternoon. At first, the snow should be light, but it will gradually increase as the day turns to evening. The loss of the sun and increasing snow intensity will make travel during the evening a bit sloppy, but this still isn’t a heavy snowfall.
Through midnight, most areas will see an inch or two of accumulation with temperatures remaining in the 20s.
Friday Overnight through Saturday
What: Snow, wind, cold
Impacts: High
The cold front should move through sometime near or after midnight. Accompanying the front will be a squall of heavy snow with an additional quick inch or so of accumulation.
As the front passes, winds will turn to the northwest and drastically increase with gusts over 40 mph. Temperatures will rapidly drop, reaching 0 to +5 by sunrise with a few parts of the western Southern Tier dropping below zero. Wind chill values will be between -10 and -25 with localized open areas reaching -30.
The wind and temperature will change little during the day on Saturday, meaning these wind chills will also remain in place. This is hazardous cold, with frostbite possible in 30 minutes or even less.
In addition to the cold, a spray of lake effect snow will be coming south off Lake Ontario. Several additional inches are likely along and north of the Thruway, with lighter accumulations south to about the southern tips of Cayuga-Seneca-Keuka Lakes. The Southern Tier should see little accumulation.
With a fluffy snow expected, the wind will easily cause blowing and drifting, keeping travel less than ideal.
Saturday Night through Sunday
What: Reduced snow and wind, still cold
Impacts: Moderate
Wind speeds will drop Saturday night with gusts mainly staying under 30 mph. The breezy but not strong winds will persist into Sunday as well.
Temperatures will drop to near or slightly below zero Saturday night, then rise to the +5 to +10 degree range Sunday afternoon. Wind chills will remain below zero, but will become slightly less hazardous with the lighter winds.
Lake effect snow will gradually become lighter and more restricted, but flurries will likely linger well into and possibly throughout Sunday. Accumulations should be minimal, expect north of the Thruway, where a couple more inches will be possible locally.
Monday through Wednesday
What: Moderating Temperatures, Quiet Weather
Impacts: None
Generally quiet weather is expected early next week. Winds will be less favorable for lake effect on Monday, though a stray flurry early cannot be ruled out. Likewise, a small system may bring a few flurries overnight Monday night but with no real impacts.
Monday will still be cold, but not as cold as the weekend. Afternoon highs will reach into the mid 10s with light winds. Tuesday will jump into the 20s, while Wednesday has a shot at breaking 30 degrees.
Late Next Week & Beyond
The weather looks more active late next week, but the models are noisy and inconsistent with any specific threats. Furthermore, with a lack of cold air in place, precipitation type with any systems will be a factor, and we could just as easily end up with some rain as we could snow or ice.
Unfortunately, with Valentine’s Day next Saturday, some other meteorologists and weather pages, unfortunately including some within the media locally, are taking the opportunity to hype up the potential for a Valentine’s Day snow storm, despite the very low odds this far in advance. Be wary of such claims and snapshot images of single model solutions.
Daily highs in the 30s look like a possibility late next week, next weekend, and for the following week.
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