Thunderstorms chances seem to be increasing for Thursday afternoon while Friday’s chances may be decreasing. Sunday remains a day to watch and may have the greatest chance for widespread potentially strong storms, but uncertainty remains high.
Thursday
Storm Chances: Scattered
Timing: 3-7 PM
Areas: Anywhere
Severity: Isolated strong winds, small hail
A small disturbance in the atmosphere associated with thunderstorms that developed last night over the Midwest is expected to arrive in our region this afternoon. Thunderstorm models are now coming into better agreement that this feature will serve as a trigger to form a cluster of loosely organized storms, traveling from areas west of the FLX around 3 PM to areas east around 7 PM.
There is still some uncertainty on how widespread or strong the storms become, but weak winds above the surface will limit the organization and storm strength. Still, with a hot and humid air mass in place, brief instances of strong, potentially damaging winds and some hail are possible, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
» Did you know? Severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings will automatically post in a special section on the FLX Weather homepage and within this blog post? I can also push small updates to this section if needed. So all you need to do is come back here to see if there are any updates!
Outside of this potential storm cluster, it will just be another hot and humid day. Most areas will see highs in the mid 80s, but isolated pockets may be hotter. With the high humidity, heat index values near or above 90 are likely. Winds will be light and sunshine will mix with clouds.
Temperatures tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out, but will be unlikely.
Friday
Storm Chances: Decreasing, but uncertain
Timing: Peak during the midday or early afternoon, lingering into the later afternoon
Areas: All
Severity: Scattered instances of damaging winds, hail IF storms develop
A cold front is expected to pass through the region on Friday, possibly by the late morning hours. If the front moves through that early, the chances for thunderstorms may turn out to be minimal.
Some models still favor a slightly later frontal passage with widespread thunderstorms, but the specialized thunderstorms models are less aggressive at this point. My gut feeling is they may be underplaying the set up at this point in time… but that it all depends on exactly when the front arrives.
Should storms develop, they could quickly become strong to severe. The greatest threat will be during the midday and early afternoon hours.
Forecast confidence should increase with tonight’s Weather Planner post and with tomorrow morning’s Weekend Outlook. Be sure to check back for updates.
Once the front comes through, temperatures will level off in the low and mid 80s. Dewpoints will be slow to drop, but the atmosphere should start to become less humid by evening. Friday night will be clear to partly cloudy with more comfortable temperatures falling to around 60 degrees.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds, no storms
Saturday looks quieter, less humid, and a touch cooler. Temperatures will still be into the 80s, but dewpoints will retreat to the upper 50s and low 60s. Sun and clouds are expected, and a stray shower cannot be totally ruled out… but no thunderstorms are expected.
Sunday
Storm Chances: An uncertain line of storms
Timing:Â Late morning or early afternoon. Still quite uncertain
Areas: All
Severity: Some potential for instances of damaging winds, hail
Another cold front will move through the area on Sunday, possible with showers and thunderstorms. Wind profiles look much more favorable for potential severe weather, but the necessary fuel to power significant storms may be lacking. Sometimes in a set up like this, the powerful wind profiles can overcome the lack of fuel. Other times, there just isn’t enough to get storms going in the first place. The timing of the front may be a key factor in whether any severe threat develops locally, or ends up further to our south and east. So far, the models are too inconsistent to say which scenario is more favored. Stay tuned.
Next Week
Cooler, less humid air is expected to build in next week, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. However, it will remain unsettled, with frequent chances for rain… some possibly widespread and heavy. Temperatures will generally be in the 70s, but a rainy day could result in highs in the 60s.
Monday looks like the most likely day next week to remain dry, but it may also be the coolest, regardless of rain. Some models are trending toward highs in the 60s.
The most likely day(s) for rain are starting to coalesce around the later week, possible later Thursday into Friday.
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