Rain associate with a cold front will pass through on Friday, but high pressure will then build in for a sunny weekend. Temperatures this weekend will be very close to the climatological averages for early October. Another cold front will pass through on Monday, ushering in the first widespread frost chances Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Later next week, temperatures look to rebound.
Published Friday, October 2
Friday
What:Â Periods of rain
A cold front will slowly pass through the region on Friday with an area of widespread rain. A couple hours of steady rain look possible, especially for the western half of the region during the morning hours. The rain will start to break up some as it heads into the eastern Finger Lakes for the late morning and early afternoon, but nearly all of the region should still see at least some rainfall. Clouds will remain through the afternoon.
Friday’s winds start from the southwest, but will turn to the northwest with speeds up to 10 mph. This wind shift will mark the cold front and should take place just before it starts to rain. Temperatures will start the day in the mid 60s, then drop a little to the low 60s and upper 50s in the afternoon. Skies will start to clear overnight, allowing lows to drop to the mid 40s.
Saturday
What: Sunny
Saturday looks bright and sunny behind Friday’s cold front. A few small clouds may bubble up for the late morning and afternoon, but no rain is expected. Light north winds will blow. Afternoon highs will be in the low 60s with nighttime temperatures in the low 40s.
Sunday
What: Sun and clouds
Sunday also looks quiet with a mix of sun and various cloud types. Winds will be breezy from the south at 10-15 mph with highs in the mid 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid and upper 40s.
Monday
What: A morning shower or two
Another cold front is expected on Monday, bringing a quick-moving band of scattered showers through the area during the morning. Much of the day will be dry with sunshine, and probably half of more of the area will not see any rain at all. Temperatures will end top out in the upper 50s.
Tuesday
What: Morning frost
Cold air will settle in behind Monday’s front, interacting with clear skies Monday night to bring our first chance for widespread frost with lows in the 30s. Some lakeshore areas may be able to stay near 40 degrees and avoid frost. The rest of Tuesday looks sunny but cool with highs struggling even to reach the mid 50s. Tuesday night will bring another, perhaps higher chance for frost with lows again well down into the 30s.
Wednesday
What: Morning frost
There is a strong chance for widespread frost Wednesday morning with lows a couple degrees colder than Tuesday morning. Some areas may even see a killing freeze, though it is too early to be sure. The rest of the day will also be sunny and a touch warmer than Tuesday with highs making it to the low 60s.
Thursday
What: A couple showers
Like Monday, Thursday will have a small chance for a couple stray showers. Most areas will probably stay dry, and some sun will shine as well. Temperatures may be able to make it back to the mid 60s. It should also be a much warmer morning with no frost and lows starting in the mid and upper 40s.
Late Next Week
A few showers may be possible late next week or early in next weekend. Any rain that falls will probably be light and there is a nearly equal chance that there is no rain at all. There is a very wide range of possible temperatures showing on the models, especially by next weekend, though the trends seem to favor mild weather over chilly.
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