A nearby cold front will bring some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to the area today and a couple lingering showers Wednesday. A strong system will bring widespread rain Friday with gusty winds. Behind this system, lake enhanced rain and snow showers will be possible Saturday morning before dry, milder weather starts to build in for Sunday and most of next week.
Published Tuesday, October 13
Tuesday
What: Scattered showers, a few afternoon storms
A cold front will approach the area from the north on Tuesday, but will never quit make it into the area. Still, several rounds of scattered showers are likely today.
The 7 AM radar shows one band of showers entering the western Finger Lakes. The band is better organized and thicker to the north, so rain will be more likely over those areas through the mid-morning hours.
That will be the general trend today, with rain more likely to the north, and more sporadic to the south.
The prime time for additional showers and a few thunderstorms will be in the late afternoon, roughly between 3 PM and sunset. A few showers will also linger after sunset, but no thunderstorms are expected. There remains a very small, but still worth mentioning severe thunderstorm threat. Strong winds are the primary threat, while an isolated, brief, weak tornado cannot be totally ruled out. Most likely, neither will happen.
Non-thunderstorm related winds will be southwest at 10-15 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid and upper 70s, but some of the typically warmer areas should push make it all the way to 80 degrees. Temperatures will be slow to drop overnight, staying near 70 in the evening and eventually making it down to the low 60s just before sunrise.
Wednesday
What: A few showers
Wednesday will be rather cloudy with a few occasional showers. Not all areas will see rain, and those that do should see minimal amounts. Winds will be from the northwest around 10 mph. Temperatures will only rise a little during the day as the cold front finally moves through. Look for highs in the mid 60s. Clouds will remain much of Wednesday night with winds turning to the north. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s.
Thursday
What: Sun and clouds
Thursday will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds, though there may be more clouds than sun early on. Winds will be from the north with speeds around or slightly over 5 mph. A southeast wind will develop late in the afternoon and become blustery Thursday night. Afternoon highs will mainly be in the upper 50s with mid 50s in the hills. Temperatures will initially drop to the low 50s, but may rise back to the mid 50s prior to sunrise Friday.
Friday
What:Â Periods of rain
A strong weather system will move into the area on Friday with rain and wind. Widespread rain, some heavy, is expected throughout the morning hours. Friday afternoon will probably turn more toward showers. Many areas should see between a half inch and one inch of rain, but locally higher amounts are possible. Blustery winds at 15-20 mph will be from the south, then southwest through the morning. As the steady rain ends, winds will turn to the northwest, maintaining their speed through the afternoon and into the night.
Temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 50s during the morning, then drop several degrees during the afternoon. A steady drop will continue Friday night, with temperatures down into the low and mid 30s overnight. With blustery winds, clouds, and lake effect precipitation, frost will be hard to come by despite the cold. Snow showers, however, are looking increasingly likely after midnight.
Saturday
What: Morning rain and snow showers
Lake effect precipitation will persist Saturday morning, getting extra support on the backside of Friday’s weather system. With northwest winds, a broad spray of precipitation is expected across the Finger Lakes. With temperatures starting in the low and mid 30s, snow is looking more possible, including perhaps some light coatings over grassy surfaces at higher elevations.
As always with early (and late) season snow, confidence is very low this far out, and there is usually less snow than the models end up showing. I’ve taken this into account, but other weather apps and services that just display blended model data, or rely on hyping the weather for their views, will likely over-emphasize and over-forecast the snow potential on Saturday.
Northwest winds will continue to be blustery with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph. The wind will slowly weaken during the afternoon, but will remain breezy. Lake enhanced precipitation will be replaced by a mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon highs will struggle into the mid 40s.
Saturday night will have partly cloudy skies with winds turning to the southwest at speeds of 5-10 mph.
Sunday
What:Â Sun and clouds
Winds will be much lighter on Sunday, coming from the southwest at around 10 mph. Skies will be quite sunny with mix of thin clouds passing through. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s.
Monday
What: Sun and clouds
Dry weather is also expected on Monday with plenty of sunshine, a few clouds, and highs working their way back into the low 60s.
Next Week
Next week looks quiet with no major weather systems currently showing on the models. As such, temperatures will likely remain steady with highs generally in the 60s. Clear nights will lead to lows in the 30s and 40s, so there may be more chances for frost.
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