Dry air and clear skies are expected again today, allowing temperatures into the 60s during the day, but then causing a drop well into the 30s tonight. A weak frontal system will bring a few clouds and maybe a stray spit of rain Thursday, with a few more clouds on Friday. More sunny, dry weather is expected this weekend and into next week.
Published Wednesday, October 21
When going through my morning forecast routine today, I noticed that yesterday’s high temperatures were warmer than every model forecast, and this morning’s lows were colder.
After some investigation, I think the biggest daytime problem was a vast overestimation of the influence of a cool Lake Ontario and underestimation of the ability of the dry soil to contribute to the near-surface daytime heating. At night, the dry air is allowing temperatures to drop more than expected, especially in deeper valley locations.
I have adjusted the 7-day forecast notably compared to yesterday to take these factors into account, given that there is almost no rain in the forecast and the same general pattern will remain in place.
Wednesday
What: Sunny
There will be little difference between today’s weather and tomorrow’s. Skies will be sunny and light north winds will blow, though speeds will be slightly lower. Temperatures should make it into the low 60s on average, which means some areas may see mid 60s while others stay closer to 60 degrees or even in the upper 50s. A cold night is expected with lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Thursday
What:Â Sun and clouds. A stray afternoon shower.
A subtle frontal boundary will move through the area during the afternoon. After a sunny morning, some scattered clouds will pass through during the afternoon. A couple of these may be able to produce a few spits of rain, but the chances for measurable precipitation is very low.
Northwest winds will increase during the afternoon with speeds around or slightly over 10 mph. This should cause temperatures to drop a couple degrees during the afternoon, but midday highs will still be around 60 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will range through the 30s with light north winds and a few clouds.
Friday
What:Â Sun and clouds
Cool air will build in for Friday on light north winds. Afternoon highs in the mid 50s are likely, though a few areas could sneak a little higher Sunshine will mix with a few clouds, especially in the morning. A clear, cold night is expected with lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Saturday
What: Sunny
A new high pressure will be in firm control by Saturday, leaving skies sunny and winds nearly calm. Temperatures should be able to bounce back to the low 60s. A light south wind Saturday night will keep temperatures a touch higher, but still well into the 30s for most areas.
Sunday
What:Â Sunny
Sunshine will dominate Sunday as well. South winds will help nudge temperatures increase further with highs in the upper half of the 60s possible. The south wind will help keep most areas in the 40s Sunday night.
Monday
What: Sun and clouds
Another small weather system will approach the area on Monday, leading to some clouds mixing with the sunshine. A late shower cannot be totally ruled out, but like with Thursday’s front, measurable precipitation may be rare. Temperatures should at least reach the mid 60s but could be a bit higher depending on the afternoon cloud cover.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds
The same frontal boundary may still be nearby early Tuesday, leading to some clouds and perhaps a drip of rain or two. Sunshine should increase in the afternoon. Temperatures will be knocked back with highs in the mid 50s.
Later Next Week
Rain chances will start to creep upward late next week and next weekend, but at this time, there isn’t much I can confidently identify as a single reasonable chance. Temperatures will go with the amount of sun and any precipitation, so they will most likely continue to run near or slightly above average during the day, but chilly at night.
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