Early week sun, then mild temperatures

finger lakes weather forecast monday february 12 2018 sun warm above normal temperatures
Skies will turn partly cloudy to mostly sunny Monday and Tuesday, followed by a warm up later this week that could last for quite some time.

Quiet Early Week Weather

The weather over the Finger Lakes will be quiet and sunny to start the week before unsettled, but warmer air moves in.

A few clouds will linger early Monday morning, associated with the departing weather systems from the weekend.

Skies should clear this morning though as a large, sprawling high pressure system builds in from the west.

Between this high and the departing storm system, northwest winds may gust to 25 mph at times today before dropping off this evening.

Temperatures are mostly in the upper 20s to start the day and should hold steady this morning. With the northwest winds in place though, temperatures will slowly back off into the mid 20s this afternoon and into the teens this evening.

By Tuesday morning, a few single digit temperatures may pop up, mostly in the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes. Across the rest of the region, a few lake effect clouds and maybe a flurry will help keep temperatures in the teens.

Partly cloudy skies and a light south wind will help temperatures rebound to the upper 20s and low 30s Tuesday afternoon.

Turning Mild

Temperatures will hold steady or even rise slightly Tuesday night as a surge of warm air pushes north.

A few scattered rain showers will be possible early Wednesday as this warm air moves in.

Still, a fair amount of sunshine is also likely on Wednesday after the rain showers move through. Temperatures will quickly rise, topping out between the mid 40s and 50 degrees.

A better chance for on and off rain showers will move in Wednesday night, followed by even warmer temperatures on Thursday. Look for highs to push into the low and mid 50s.

A few breaks of sun will be possible on Thursday, but clouds will be more common.

Rain will move in Thursday night into Friday, eventually turning back to snow as cooler air seeps back into the region briefly.

Winter Fizzles

The mild temperatures appear to be here to stay.

While the day to day fluctuations in the weather will likely bring some days of cooler temperatures here and there, a major pattern shift will keep the overall pattern mild, possibly for the remainder of the winter.

Using the long-range European model trends and its ensemble suit, where the model is run 51 different times with slightly different conditions to give a wide range of possible outcomes, I am comfortable taking a stab at a longer range forecast for the next several weeks.

In the near-term, the European Ensembles show consistently above normal temperatures through the end of February. In fact, if you average the daily maximum temperature overall 51 ensemble members, only two of the next 15 days have temperatures below 32 degrees — today and Tuesday. Only two other days, Friday and Saturday, show temperatures in the 30s.

Not surprisingly, with temperatures mostly expected to be in the 40s, snow will be hard to come by. Most ensemble members have only an inch or two falling over the next two weeks, with most showing that coming on Saturday.

In the longer range, temperatures appear to be near or above normal each week through the end of March. By the end of March, the average high in the Finger Lakes is in the 40s, so anything warmer than that will certainly start to feel spring-like.

Now, it is very important to realize that these are general trends and patterns. Storm systems which are impossible to resolve at this point will bring day to day fluctuations and probably some cold and snow from time to time. Significant winter storms can easily interrupt an otherwise quiet, mild March. We have seen that often enough before.

Winter is not over, but it does seem to be fizzling.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making goat milk soap, running until his legs burn, or playing with his three young boys.

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