Heavy rain possible as cold front approaches

Heavy rain is possible in the Finger Lakes today. Click image to enlarge.
Heavy rain is possible in the Finger Lakes today. Click image to enlarge.

The weather will be rather busy today as the strong storm system that has been tracking slowly eastward finally makes its way into the Finger Lakes.

First though, take a look at those 6am temperatures! Most places are in the upper 60s and low 70s early this morning, which is nearly 70º above the normal daily minimums, 10º above the normal daily maximums, and 15-20º warmer than it is this morning in the Deep South.

This lopsided temperature pattern is the product of the stalled out storm centered over southwest Michigan. While warm air has been pumped north, cooler air is working in around the low, making it warmer to the northeast of the circulation than it is to the southeast.

Along with the warmer temperatures, some very moist air has moved north. In fact, compared to our normal climatological values, the measure of the amount of water in the atmosphere is nearly at its maximum for October.

Your Finger Lakes Forecast for Oct. 15/16. Click image to enlarge.
Your Finger Lakes Forecast for Oct. 15/16. Click image to enlarge.

As low pressure over the Carolinas this morning lifts north along the front, rain will become more widespread in the Finger Lakes. There was quite a bit of disagreement in the forecast models on where the heaviest rain would fall, but a swath of 1-2″ with locally more just to the east of the storm track makes the most sense. That places most of the region within the zone for heavy rain today, though the heaviest could end up along the eastern part of the green shaded area.

The rain should mostly fall this afternoon, but it may linger into the evening and first part of the night before  tapering off to showers overnight. Temperatures will back off into the mid 50s as the cooler air works in. This air is not cold though, as high temperatures tomorrow will still be in the mid and upper 60s despite more clouds than sun and a few more showers.

With the parent low in no rush to move out, showers will continue to be in the forecast into the weekend. Temperatures will remain mild until late Saturday, when a reinforcing shot of cold air moves in.High temperatures on Sunday will only be in the 40s.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.