A classic spring time battle between warm and cold air will play out this week over our region.
A strong boundary between the warm and cold air is setting up and will remain in place most of the week, with areas south of the boundary seeing very warm weather while areas to the north barely stay warm enough for rain.
We are starting out the week on the warm side of the front. Temperatures will rise to near 60º for the Finger Lakes today. Some sun is possible earlier in the day, but clouds will increase later this afternoon. Some showers will work in overnight as the front begins to sag south. Heavy rain is not expected, with a quarter inch or less of precipitation through Tuesday.
The front will be well to the south of us on Tuesday, placing us back in the cold air. Frontal precipitation, which will consistently be north of the front itself, will continue across the Southern Tier. Those areas will only see highs in the low 40s on Tuesday. Along and north of I-90 however, the sun may come out and warm temperatures into the mid or upper 40s.
A disturbance will move from west to east along the front on Wednesday, bringing a period of rain to the Finger Lakes. Rainfall amounts from this may be heavy enough to cause some localized minor flooding. Some higher elevations could also see some snow mixing in.
A strong storm will develop over the Midwest on Thursday, likely spawning a large and dangerous severe weather outbreak from Chicago to Dallas. Meanwhile, warm air will return to the Finger Lakes on Thursday, with highs on Thursday dependent on how quickly the warm air arrives. Friday however should see temperatures well into the 60s region wide before the aforementioned storm moves through, possibly with a few (non-severe) thunderstorms of our own Friday afternoon.
The weather should settle down for the weekend, with sunny skies and temperatures finally settling in around average.