A cold front will cross the Finger Lakes early this afternoon. A small line of strong thunderstorms may briefly develop just ahead of this front.
Overall, conditions are not very favorable for severe weather today, as the atmosphere is not very unstable. Instability is a major factor in thunderstorm development. In an unstable environment, air that is lifted, by a front or some other process, will continue to rise, leading to cloud growth.
Offsetting the very marginal instability is the well defined cold front, which will act to trigger a line of showers and storms, and some strong winds aloft, which will help organize the line.
Conditions may come together just right enough for a few stronger storms, with some strong winds and small hail. The best chance for this to happen will be between 11am and 3pm, mostly over the western and northern parts of the Finger Lakes.
As the line moves east, it will lose out on the intersection of marginally favorable conditions and the thunderstorms should dissipate to mostly just showers. Cooler air will filter in behind the front, with clear skies tonight and a few areas of fog.
The remainder of the work week should be dry, with the next chance of rain likely holding off until Sunday.
