Model trends are for the rain to reach a bit further north on Saturday.
For most of the week, the computer models used to forecast the weather days in advance have head steady rain lurking just to the south of our area for Saturday. Knowing that computer models often can and do adjust as weather events draw nearer, I’ve cautioned about the uncertainties in the forecast.
Unfortunately, it is now looking like the rain may work further north. Uncertainties still exist in the exact evolution of the rain tomorrow, but widespread showers, if not a steady rain, look possible across the Southern Tier and into the southern Finger Lakes.
Further north, across the I-90 Corridor, the rain will still probably have a number of breaks in it, but showers may be more numerous than previously expected.
Let’s back up and look at how we will get to this point.
Skies are starting out devoid of cloud cover early Friday morning. Yet, it does not seem that way thanks to what I suspect is smoke from Candian wildfires north of Minnesota. The exact source of our hazy, smokey skies is a bit of a mystery, but it should stick with us through the morning.
By this afternoon, clouds will start to move north from a storm system currently moving through the Gulf states. This system will take a turn towards the north later today and will be responsible for this weekend’s rain.
The rain will not start to move into the Finger Lakes until early Saturday morning within a couple hours on either side of sunrise. With at least some filtered sunshine this morning and a rain free afternoon and evening, temperatures should flirt with 70 degrees today and only drop back into the mid and upper 40s tonight.
Temperatures will be cool on Saturday, however, with highs only in the 50s across the southern parts of the region, with low to mid 60s north of I-90.
Sunday is still a bit uncertain as well, but showers will be possible throughout the day. Sunday should not be as wet as Saturday though.
High pressure will build in next week, with warming temperatures. Highs by Wednesday and Thursday should be near or above 80 degrees. Some thunderstorms may be possible later in the week.