With low pressure overhead, Monday will be one last dreary day before nicer weather settles in.
Scattered Showers Monday
The low pressure system that has lingered in the Great Lakes with cool, damp weather for days on end has started to move and weaken. The surface low is located to our north, while the center of lower pressures in the upper levels of the atmosphere is directly overhead. A number of subtle disturbances continue to spin around the low as well.
This low will drift east and southeast today as it continues to dissipate slowly. As it does so, scattered rain showers will continue across the Finger Lakes.
Much like this weekend, it will not be raining most of the time. However, by sunset, most areas will likely have seen at least some rain today.
Between showers, it will be mostly cloudy with light winds.
Temperatures will be near average, despite the clouds and showers, with highs in the mid 60s.
Very Nice Week Ahead
As the low continues to pull away and weaken, high pressure will build in to take its place. This high pressure system will come from eastern Canada and will be centered well to the east of the Finger Lakes, along the New England coast.
Clockwise winds around the high pressure system will pump warm air north into the Finger Lakes on the backside of the high. Temperatures will steadily increase this week as a result. By Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal, with mid and upper 70s likely.
The remainder of the week looks dry in addition to being mild. Some clouds may linger on Tuesday, with some fair weather clouds on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny.
The next chance for rain will not be until late Saturday when a subtle, but important front moves through. More on that at the end of the next section:
Major Hurricane Matthew Update
Over the weekend, Matthew exploded into a very dangerous hurricane. Matthew briefly reached category 5 status Friday night with winds of 160 mph. Winds have backed off some and were topping out at 130 mph at the 5am update. That makes Matthew a category 4 hurricane.
Matthew is taking a path between Jamaica and Haiti. Tragically, this puts Haiti on the stronger, east side of the system. As the winds and moisture from Matthew move onshore in Haiti, they will encounter tall mountains. The air will be forced upward, which will help wring out every last bit of rain Matthew can produce. The result will be catastrophic, with localized rainfall amounts of 40 inches possible. This will create deadly flooding and mudslides.
For a poverty-stricken nation still recovering from an earthquake in 2010, Matthew poses a tremendous threat that could further cripple parts of Haiti for years to come.
After Haiti, Matthew will pass near or over the eastern tip of Cuba before heading for the Bahamas. The track beyond remains very uncertain, but Matthew will likely at least stay fairly close to the southeast coast of the United States. Areas most at risk for a direct hit, at this point, would be Florida and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Impacts from Matthew in the Finger Lakes are still not completely ruled out. However, the front that moves through this weekend will likely help kick Matthew to the east. The most likely scenario will be that Matthew has no direct impact on our region, but stay tuned, as it is far from a done deal.