Details on Friday’s Rain
The weather set up is complex this morning and involves a cold front to the north of the Finger Lakes and the remains of Tropical Storm Cindy to the south. Sandwiched in between areas of heavy rain, the Finger Lakes is dry this morning with some breaks of sun. This could work againt us for later in the day.
With areas of sun and only a few scattered showers this morning, temperatures will be able to rise to near or above 80 degrees by the early afternoon hours.
This in turn could produce an environment a bit more capable of producing thunderstorms than the current computer model projections are giving the atmosphere credit for.
With very high amounts of moisture in the air courtesy of the remains of Tropical Storm Cindy, heavy rain and flash flooding will be the primary concern today with some strong winds as a secondary threat.
The hail and tornado threats are almost zero today thanks to very warm air above the surface and generally uniform wind directions through the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Thunderstorms with heavy downpours should begin to fire up after 3 pm as daytime heating peaks and a small disturbance pushes towards the Finger Lakes.
The computer models are in good agreement that some scattered showers and storms will develop during this time. My instinct is that there will be numerous storms with locally torrential downpours.
Flash flood guidance indicates that about 1-2 inches of rain in an hour, or 2-3 inches of rain in three hours would cause flash flooding. With how moist the atmosphere is, and the potential for multiple storms in the same areas, this is a concern.
I do think that any flooding that occurs will be on a very localized basis and widespread problems are not as likely.
Thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours before gradually weakening. Showers will continue overnight, but should mostly exit the area by sunrise Saturday.
Weekend Weather Forecast
Saturday will generally be a pleasant day across the Finger Lakes.
For starters, the high levels of humidty will have been swept away by a cold front that will push through Friday night.
Skies will becoming increasingly sunny during the morning hours. Some fair weather clouds will bubble up by midday and through the afternoon.
One or two showers may also develop during the late afternoon hours. A brief thunderstorm is not out of the question. Most areas will probably remain dry, though.
Temperatures will top out in the mid 70s. The wind will be breezy, but not too strong.
Sunday will be cooler with more wind and a higher chance for afternoon showers.
After a sunny start once again, showers will become more widespread during the afternoon hours. Some areas may still escape with no precipitation, but most areas will probably see at least a little rain.
Wind gusts over 30 mph will be common, with some gusts over 40 mph possible in the Genesse Valley and northwestern Finger Lakes.
High tepmeratures will struggle to 70 degrees.
Be sure to check back later this afternoon for my Friday afternoon weekend weather video! This week’s video has been cancelled. I have just ran out of time to prepare for it, and am waiting on a few improvements that will hopefully be ready for next week!
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