End of the bitter cold in sight for the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast weekend weather janaury 6 2018 january 7 2018 january thaw
A significant pattern change is on the horizon for the Finger Lakes resulting in above normal temperatures becoming commonplace. [Photo by Nanci McCraine]

Significant Pattern Change Ahead

Sick and tired of the bitter, dangerous cold? Good news then — the end is almost here before a switch to near and above normal temperatures.

Saturday will be brutally cold and windy once again with very similar conditions to Friday.

Temperatures will hover around 0 degrees much of the day with winds gusts over 30 mph. Wind chills will continue to range from -15 to -30 degrees across the region.

Once again, this is dangerous cold that can produce hypothermia and frostbite in less than 15 minutes.

Blowing snow and some lake effect will also continue in the same areas where it has been. The lake effect will sink south a bit this evening before shooting north as winds shift to the south.

This will set up a sunny, warming day on Sunday as temperatures push into the teens after a frigid morning well below zero.

Temperatures will then push into the 20s Sunday night and into the 30s on Monday as a storm system brings some snow and even rain showers to the region.

Prolonged Near to Above Normal Temperatures

Once we dig out of this deep freeze, temperatures will continue to be near to above normal for much of the remainder of January.

I’ve mentioned the European Model Ensembles before. As a refresher, the European model is consistently the top weather model in the world.

The ensemble suite is where the European model is run 51 different times with a slight variation in the initial conditions or equations for each run.

This results in a variety of possible scenarios for the future weather. Averaging these ensembles is a good way to get a general idea of what weather patterns are most probable.

Over the next 15 days in Ithaca, the European Ensemble averages have more days with high temperatures in the 40s than in the 20s (or colder).

That is certainly great news for those who have just about enough of the extreme cold. Those that rely on the snow for business or enjoyment will be less thrilled, of course.

Precipitation trends for the remainder of the month vary and will likely depend on individual storm tracks as lake effect will become a non-issue most of the time with the warmer temperatures.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

  1. Kathryn Tunison

    Thanks for your consistent efforts in keeping us informed. It’ll be nice to have a break in the cold.