Warm air returns to the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday february 14 2018 clouds rain warm
Warmer temperatures will move into the Finger Lakes, along with clouds and a couple of rain showers. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Temperatures on the Rise

Warm weather is moving into the Finger Lakes on Wednesday thanks to a broad southerly flow across the Eastern United States.

High pressure that moved through early in the week has settled over the Southeastern United States.

finger lakes weather temperature change midnight to 7am wednesday february 14 2018
Temperatures over the Finger Lakes rose between 5 and 10 degrees from midnight to 7 am on Wednesday, February 14, 2018.

The clockwise flow of air around this high is producing a warm south wind from the Gulf of Mexico into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England.

Temperatures here in the Finger Lakes rose several degrees overnight and are starting the day in the 30s and even low 40s.

With the influx of warmer air, clouds have developed over the area and will remain in place throughout the day. A little sunshine may peek through from time to time, but clouds will be much more common than any sun.

Without the sun, temperatures will not get as warm as they would otherwise. Still, highs this afternoon should reach the mid and upper 40s. One or two places may make a run at 50 degrees as well.

Rain Chances

Wednesday should remain dry across the Finger Lakes. A few hilltop may experience some fog this morning with more fog possible tonight.

A couple of isolated, very light rain showers may drift through overnight and into early Thursday as warm air continues to push north.

Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Highs on Thursday should be into the 50s for most areas.

Rain will become more likely Thursday evening and will continue off and on into Friday morning.

Most areas will probably see around a quarter-inch of rain, but a few places could see as much as a half-inch, especially across the Southern Tier.

A cold front will push through early Friday morning, ending the warmer temperatures. A few flurries will be possible through the afternoon with little to no accumulation.

Temperatures on Friday will slide back through the 30s and into the 20s during the afternoon.

Weekend Preview

High pressure will be in control of the weather to start the weekend with some sunny skies to start Saturday.

Some high, thin clouds will work in from the south during the morning as an area of low pressure develops over the Mid-Atlantic.

The question then becomes how far north will this low come on Saturday night?

The 51 European Model ensemble members are split, with a group keeping this system south of the Finger Lakes and a second group bringing some light snow in.

The areas most likely to see snow will be the southeastern portions of the region, including places like Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland.

Uncertainty remains high with this system, but it will be a quick mover with mostly sunny skies and 40s returning on Sunday.

This type of quick-hitting system that sneaks in during a cold pocket is exactly the type of system I have been warning about over the last two days, despite an overall warm period. Chances are very high that we will see more of these before Spring arrives.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.