Isolated Flood Concerns
A moisture-laden atmosphere will interact with strong surface heating and an approaching cold front to produce scattered thunderstorms with torrential downpours on Friday.
Yesterday, southeast winds put a limit on the instability that was able to develop across the Finger Lakes region. An unstable atmosphere is one where air can rise quickly through the atmosphere, leading to potential thunderstorm development.
Today, winds are from the southwest, which will result in warmer temperatures and more instability.
Already at 7 am, temperatures are pushing into the 70s and should reach the low 80s well before noon. With very humid air in place, the atmosphere will be ready for some thunderstorm development.
The triggering mechanism for thunderstorms today will be a subtle disturbance and a cold front. Once one or two thunderstorms pop late this morning, additional thunderstorms will likely develop along the outflow of rain-cooled air the initial storms produce.
This, combined with very weak winds aloft, could lead to prolonged heavy rain in very isolated areas. An hour or two of downpours could be enough to produce flash floods, especially if the downpour occurs over an area prone to flooding, such as a city, town, or village or areas of steep terrain.
The vast majority of the Finger Lakes will not see flooding today. Hopefully, none of the region will. A fair number of airs may even get through today with little to no rainfall.
Severe weather is not a concern today due to the very weak winds aloft. A brief stronger wind gust will be possible, but the flood risk is far and away more of a concern today.
Thunderstorms should continue throughout the afternoon before moving south and quickly dissipating by this evening.
Less Humid Weekend
Friday night, the cold front will push through the Finger Lakes. Winds will turn to the north, and cooler, less humid conditions will settle in.
Saturday will be marked by morning clouds and gusty winds. Peak wind gusts during the daytime hours will be near or slightly above 25 mph.
The north winds over Lake Ontario will make the air a few degrees cooler than it would have been. High temperatures for most of the Finger Lakes will reach the upper 60s while the Southern Tier and Central New York approach 70 degrees.
Sunshine will increase from northwest to southeast during the day. Some areas may not see much sun until the late afternoon.
Winds will reverse course Saturday night and swing around to the south. The clouds that so slowly eroded away on Saturday will be blown right back in for Sunday. Some breaks of sunshine will be possible though.
Rain is generally not expected, but a spit of morning drizzle is not completely out of the question.
High temperatures on Sunday could manage the low or even mid 70s, especially if enough sun pokes out. Winds may gust in excess of 25 mph once again.
Next Week’s Weather
A front will bring a shot of rain to the area Sunday night into Monday. A second front will bring scattered showers in on Tuesday.
Each of these fronts will knock another 5 degrees or so off of our temperatures. This will result in mid 60s for highs on Monday and just low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.
In the cool air, additional pop up showers will be possible on Wednesday.
An area of high pressure looks to keep the area dry and sunny on Thursday before another front slides through on Friday.
By the end of the week, temperatures should moderate closer to normal with highs near or slightly above 70 degrees.
Current indications are hinting at more summer-time heat for the second week of June.