Rain and wind persist through Monday

Soaking Rain Monday

Rain has overspread the Finger Lakes and will continue into the afternoon hours on Monday.

The rain this morning is widespread and heavy as low pressure over Ohio slowly lifts northeast.

Winds are also rather blustery from the southeast, which will continue to be the case throughout the day. Expect top gusts to reach 35-45 mph.

Rain will be persistent through the morning and early afternoon hours. By the mid-afternoon, western parts of the Finger Lakes may start to see the rain break up into more sporadic showers.

Further east, the breaking up of the rain is less certain. Instead, some heavier downpours may start to develop along with a couple of rumbles of thunder.

It is in these heavier downpours that the primary flood risk exists. Thankfully, that risk is relatively low and I do not anticipate any significant flooding issues.

There is no solid boundary between the western areas that may see the rain break up and the eastern areas that do not. The further east you are, the less chance you will have for a break in the rain this afternoon or early evening.

Rain will then gradually taper off throughout the overnight hours with just a couple of stray showers lingering into Tuesday morning.

Total rainfall amounts will generally range from 1.5 to 2.5 inches with some locally higher amounts. I’ve made no changes to the rainfall map I made yesterday, which I have also included in this post.

Temperatures will hover in the upper 50s for most of today. A jump into the low 60s this evening is likely as warmer air moves in ahead of the low.

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Not Too Bad the Rest of the Week

After the scattered lingering showers Tuesday morning, high pressure will start to build back into the Finger Lakes.

A couple of stray showers cannot be completely ruled out later Tuesday and even into Wednesday, but we should start to see some sunshine mix in as well.

Thursday, too, could have a shower, but this looks most likely across the Southern Tier. More sunshine is expected by Thursday than on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The chances for rain should become less by Friday and the weekend, though this is less certain at this time.

Temperatures will return to more seasonable levels, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the low and mid 70s. Thursday and Friday will have upper 70s in the south and low 80s in the north.

Humidity levels will generally be low, but it may start to feel a bit muggy again towards the end of the week.

Hurricane Florence Updates

I will be posting daily updates on Hurricane Florence this week. As the storm draws closer to the United States, I may dedicate an entire extra blog post to the storm.

As of 5am this morning, Florence is a Category 2 hurricane with top winds of 105 mph. Additional strengthening is likely and by Tuesday morning, Florence could be at least a high-end Category 4 hurricane. Some weakening is expected before landfall, but Florence should still be at least a Category 3 storm at that time.

Landfall along the United States coast seems very likely at this point. There is still a very small possibility that Florence just skirts the coast while keeping her eye over the ocean, but I doubt that happens.

The question of the next few days will become where exactly will landfall occur. The most likely scenario seems to be the southern half of North Carolina, but landfall could easily be anywhere in North or South Carolina. Much less likely would be a landfall in northern Florida or Georgia.

Landfall is most likely to occur Thursday night, but impacts will start being felt well before that on Thursday.

Regardless of where landfall is, a large swath of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region, and especially in the Appalachian Mountains, is under the gun for catastrophic flooding, as Florence is expected to move very slowly or even stall out after landfall. There is a small chance that some moisture from Florence could sneak north into the Finger Lakes, but at this time, that does not seem likely.