Rain to showers Tuesday; Strong storms possible Wednesday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday september 25 2018 morning rain afternoon showers low severe storm risk wednesday
After a rainy morning, a few scattered showers will dot the region this afternoon. More rain is likely tomorrow along with a few strong thunderstorms. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Storm System Passing Through

A well organized storm system will continue to bring rain and wind to the Finger Lakes with a chance for a few strong thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

A large area of widespread rain moved into the Finger Lakes overnight and is slowly departing the area this morning. This rain is along the leading edge of warmer, more humid air as the system’s warm front lifts north.

Most of the steady rain should exit the Finger Lakes between 8-11 am from southwest to northeast. Roughly half an inch has fallen so far with less than a quarter-inch more expected.

Once the main rain tapers off, there will still be a few scattered showers here and there through the afternoon. Most of the time will be dry, though.

Blustery winds this morning with gusts over 35 mph will lessen somewhat for the afternoon. Look for gusts near 30 mph early and 25 mph late, all from the south.

A few breaks in the clouds will be possible this afternoon as well, but it should remain quite cloudy most of the time. High temperatures will approach or exceed 70 degrees with areas further west warmer than those in the east.

The chance for a couple stray showers will continue overnight before picking up Wednesday morning, when some thunder may also be possible. Overnight temperatures will stick in the mid 60s.

Level 2- Low Severe Thunderstorm Risk Wednesday

Despite clouds and rain showers continuing into the late morning and midday hours, the atmosphere by Wednesday afternoon will be slightly unstable as a strong cold front approaches.

A narrow line of rain and thunder will be ongoing along the front Wednesday morning across the Great Lakes and Ohio and will gradually strengthen as it heads east.

finger lakes weather forecast severe thunderstorms wednesday september 26 2018
The Finger Lakes Weather severe thunderstorm risk map for Wednesday, September 26, 2018. Damaging winds are the primary threat. Click to enlarge.

At this time, I still do not anticipate a significant severe weather event in our area. While the front and winds are strong, the instability is weak and the window of opportunity for our region small.

I have split the region in two, with the western 40% of the Finger Lakes in a Level 1- Minimal risk classification and the eastern 60% in a Level 2- Low risk classification.

Damaging winds are the concern with these storms. Unlike last Friday, I do not anticipate much, if any, appreciable tornado threat. Hail is of no concern, either.

There is a small concern for flash flooding, mainly across the eastern Southern Tier, where the ground has not yet recovered from the rain from Florence or Friday’s storms. Storms should be progressive enough to limit the flooding risk.

Currently, the main window for severe storms appears to be between 2-5 pm. Once the line of storms passes through, temperatures will rapidly drop from the 70s into the upper 50s and low 60s and the severe threat will be over.

I may need to update the map with slight adjustments tomorrow morning. I will most likely do a live blog for updates tomorrow afternoon and not a live video feed unless conditions appear to be getting worse.

Quiet Behind Front

A stretch of quiet weather is likely behind the front as a series of high pressure systems moves through.

Thursday and Friday look sunny with just a small chance for a couple scattered showers on Saturday. Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday then look sunny again.

Temperatures Thursday will top out in the mid 60s. Friday will bounce back into the low 70s with 60s on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday look cooler with highs near or slightly above 60 degrees. Cool, foggy mornings are also likely, with lows backing into the 40s.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.