Severe Thunderstorm Overview
A sharp cold front approaching the Finger Lakes will interact with strong winds in the atmosphere and limited daytime heating to bring a low risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
The severe thunderstorm threat today is less than last Friday, but a few strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible. Generally non-severe showers and storms will also be possible throughout the morning hours.
Around midday, a broken line of storms will start to organize over the western Finger Lakes and will gradually strengthen as it moves east. A few of the stronger parts of the line will bring the risk for some scattered damaging wind reports.
Other media sources may mention a tornado threat, but rest assured that any tornado threat will be contained well east of the Finger Lakes, particularly over Vermont and New Hampshire. The tornado threat in the Finger Lakes is very minimal. The hail and flooding risks should also remain minimal.
Thunderstorms should roughly be from Oswego to Geneva to Dansville around 1 PM. Syracuse, Auburn, Penn Yan, and Bath should see storms around 2 PM, with Cortland, Ithaca, and Elmira getting hit around 3 PM.
By 4 pm, the line of storms should be out of the Finger Lakes region and the severe threat will end.
Overall, most places in the Finger Lakes will not see severe weather today. A few locations will see thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered tree and minor structural damage.
I will set up a new blog post later this morning for posting live updates and commentary on the storms. Be sure to check back around noon at the latest for that post. I do not anticipate needing to do live video, but if conditions warrant a brief broadcast, I will.
Beyond the Storms
Outside of the severe thunderstorm threat, Wednesday will be a day of change across the Finger Lakes.
This morning will start out mild and windy. Temperatures are starting the day in the 60s and low 70s and should rise into the mid 70s this afternoon.
Once the line of storms moves through, temperatures will take a rapid nosedive into the low 60s or even upper 50s. A couple more showers may linger into the early evening.
Winds will remain gusty into the early evening before gradually turning clam overnight and into Thursday.
Thursday will have some sunshine filtered by thin clouds. Temperatures will top out in the low and mid 60s. A couple showers over eastern areas will be possible in the evening and overnight hours.
Friday should have increasing amounts of sunshine and temperatures working back into the low 70s.
A few more showers will be possible on Saturday with most areas seeing very little if any substantial rain.
Temperatures Saturday will return to the low and mid 60s. Sunday will struggle to reach 60 degrees despite mostly sunny skies. Monday looks warmer with 70s returning once again.
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