Windy, showery Monday as low pressure passes by

finger lakes weather forecast monday october 15 2018 rain wind sun cold front
Monday will feature morning and late day rain with a little midday sun and gusty winds. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Rain Monday, but Not a Complete Washout

A low pressure system will pass through the area today, first with a warm front and then a cold front.

The low this morning is located over Lake Huron. A warm front extending southeast from the low is pushing through the Finger Lakes. A few scattered exist along the front.

finger lakes weather surface weather map monday october 15 2018
This morning’s surface weather map shows a warm front lifting through the Finger Lakes, but with a cold front right behind it. A cold area of high pressure will build in on Tuesday. [Click map to enlarge]
As the front pushes northeast, temperatures will rise from morning lows in the mid and upper 40s as a south wind picks up.

A few breaks in the clouds will also be possible, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

This will all work favorably towards warming the area nicely and temperatures should end up a couple degrees above normal this afternoon.

Mid 60s should be commonplace throughout the Finger Lakes with some low 60s in the Southern Tier. Higher elevations in Central and Western New York will settle in the upper 50s.

The wind will be gusty, with top gusts over 30 mph throughout the late morning and afternoon hours.

By the mid to late afternoon hours, rain showers will move back in. Areas east of Cayuga Lake could see a few hours of fairly steady rain as the afternoon turns to the evening.

The cold front should move through during the early evening hours as winds turn to the west and increase a little more. Gusts around 35 mph will continue into the first part of the night before settling down after midnight.

Temperatures Trend Downward

By Tuesday morning, temperatures will range from the mid 30s in the Southern Tier and far southern Finger Lakes to the low 40s near Lake Ontario, where lake effect precipitation will be ongoing.

A few lake effect rain showers, mixing with a few snowflakes, will also be possible across the western Southern Tier.

Elsewhere, skies will be a mix of sunshine and a few clouds throughout Tuesday. Winds will swing back to the southwest, taking any lake effect away from the fringes of our region.

The southwest wind and sunshine will do little to warm the area, with highs Tuesday within a degree or two of 50 degrees.

Temperatures will stay in the 40s Tuesday night as the southwest wind continues ahead of a cold front. That front will move through on Wednesday with some scattered showers.

Highs on Wednesday will mostly be in the mid 40s with a few upper 40s in the typically warmer locations.

Wednesday will also again be windy, but even more so than today. Expect top gusts of 40-45 mph from the northwest behind the front.

A double connection of moisture from Lake Huron and Lake Ontario will send lake effect into the Finger Lakes Wednesday evening. Some of this may be snow, with a coating even possible across some of the higher elevations, especially north and east of Ithaca.

The lake effect should end by Thursday morning and winds will slowly lessen throughout Thursday. Morning lows could dip to near freezing in some of the coldest areas Thursday morning. Highs will then struggle to reach the mid 40s, but the sun should at least come out.

Friday looks to be warmer with highs jumping back to the low 60s ahead of another cold front expected for Saturday.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making goat milk soap, running until his legs burn, or playing with his three young boys.