Cold but sunny weekend ahead — what happened to the hype-storm?

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High pressure building into the Great Lakes will keep the Finger Lakes cold while allowing for some sunshine over the next several days.

Already this morning, skies are clear in some areas. Elsewhere, lake effect persists, mostly as just cloud cover but with a few additional flurries.

Those flurries will diminish this morning and be completely dissipated by midday. Some clouds will linger, but skies will be sunny for most of the region.

Temperatures are cold this morning with upper single digits where skies have cleared and low teens where clouds linger.

Gusty winds remain, producing wind chills of about -5 degrees to + 5 degrees. The lowest wind chills are in the east where the winds are stronger this morning.

High temperatures will reach the upper teens this afternoon.

The wind will drop significantly through the morning and afternoon with very light winds expected this evening.

With mostly clear skies, light winds, and fresh snow, temperatures will drop quickly this evening. Some cloud cover will work in during the second half of the night, reducing the free fall.

Still, most of the Finger Lakes will wake up to temperatures in the -5 to +5 degree range Saturday morning. Areas immediately adjacent to a lake may stay in the low teens.

The Result of the Hype

For much of the early half of the week, there was a great deal of hype about a major winter storm set to impact the Ohio Valley, South, and Northeast, including the Finger Lakes.

I called out his hype early and often. Now that the weekend is upon us, I’d like to show what has become of this major winter storm.

First, here in the Finger Lakes.

The clouds that will move in before dawn Saturday will linger through much of the day. These clouds will be on the edge of this storm system.

Some limited sunshine will likely filter through the clouds. No precipitation will fall. Temperatures Saturday will rise into the low 20s for most.

Those clouds will dissipate overnight into early Sunday. Temperatures will again start in the single digits with more widespread subzero temperatures in Central New York.

Most of the Finger Lakes will enjoy a sunny day Sunday. A few lake effect clouds over the far western areas will be possible thanks to northeast winds over Lake Ontario. Temperatures will be in the upper teens.

Further south, a decent winter storm will unfold, but not for any of the areas previously mentioned. A widespread 10-15 inches of snow will fall across portions of Missouri and Illinois.

However, this will not translate east. Most of the Ohio Valley will see a few inches of snow with a narrowing band of 6 inches extending across Indiana into western Ohio. Into the Mid-Atlantic, a general 1-3 inches of snow is expected. This is a far cry from the foot-plus blizzard that was being hyped well in advance.

Like the Finger Lakes, the Northeast and New England will be dry and sunny.

This system was so badly hyped because the media blindly followed model simulations that merged two weather systems into a much larger, more powerful storm. The computer models often show these mergers and large storms in the 5-10 days before an event, but they rarely come to fruition. Even more, the European model yet again blew away the competition, never even hinting at much possibility for a merged system.

Unfortunately, with social media, these hype stories spread fast and furiously. Pages that have nothing to do with the weather eagerly pick the stories up and share them on their blogs and social media pages. The blame is not on them as much as the meteorologists who begin such rumors.

Thankfully, there are other no-hype meteorologists popping up around the nation doing similar work to what I am doing here locally. The National Weather Service also does tremendous work and has no use for hype. Continue to use these sources and take main-stream media weather “forecasts” with a grain of salt — they have proven time and again to be completely unreliable.

Next Week’s Weather

The weather will remain tranquil for next week with high pressure continuing to dominate our region.

Sunshine with a few clouds from time to time should be expected Monday and Tuesday.

Monday morning may be the coldest morning of this cold snap with man places near or below zero. Again though, location will be everything with areas near the lakes holding closer to 10 degrees.

Temperatures will rebound reasonably for Monday afternoon with highs in the mid 20s. Tuesday will be warmer yet with mid 30s for highs.

A front on Wednesday may bring a few flurries and some gusty winds. Temperatures should remain in the mid 30s. Thursday will be a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 20s.

The certainty of quiet weather will decrease into the weekend, but there does not appear to be any substantial threats through Sunday. The next significant storm system could approach after that, but it is much too soon to say what it could bring.

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