Unsettled Pattern
Rain associated with a warm front moved through the Finger Lakes overnight.
In the wake of this front, winds have turned to the south and increased. Another round of warm and windy weather has taken hold.
Gusts today will top out between 35-45 mph with the highest speeds over the higher elevations.
Skies are cloudy early this morning, but some breaks of sun will work out later on in the day. Most of the time should remain dry, though an isolated shower or two may pop up during the late afternoon hours.
Temperatures have already risen into the low 50s as of 7 am and will continue to increase. Upper 60s and low 70s will be widespread across the region this afternoon.
The chances for showers will increase overnight and through much of Friday. None of this rain would be heavy and some areas still may not see any.
Temperatures will only drop to the upper 50s tonight. How warm Friday gets will depend on whether any sun works out or not. Mid and upper 60s are likely, but widespread low and mid 70s is not out of the question.
Low pressure will approach from the south Friday night, leading to an increase in showers and thunderstorms during the evening.
Severe weather is generally not expected, but multiple thunderstorms could move from north to south over the same areas repeatedly. Some flooding could be possible if this comes to pass.
Model data continues to disagree on where this may happen, though the trend has been for this to occur further west. While originally the models placed the heaviest rain to our east, now it is more the western Finger Lakes and western New York at risk. This will continue to be monitored.
Easter Weekend Weather
The westward trend in the placement of the heavier rain is the result in the westward trend of the path of the low pressure system. This low will pass over the region early Saturday.
A few scattered showers will accompany the low, mixed in with a few breaks of sunshine as well. With the low further to the west, our chances for a warm Saturday will increase.
Early on, there may be a very sharp cut-off between warm and cold air with Saturday morning lows near 60 degrees to the south and east and near 40 degrees to the north and west. By the afternoon, warm air may win out for everyone, with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s.
Sunday has also trended warmer with highs ranging through the 60s. A few showers may still dot the region, but most of the day should be dry.
After gusts of 30 mph or greater Friday and Saturday (generally from the south), winds will finally slacken on Sunday.
Unsettled weather will continue into next week with numerous chances for rain showers. Temperatures are generally expected to be mild though with most days at least in the 60s.
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