Cooling Off Again
After a nearly perfect Monday, the weather will take a step backwards today and Wednesday thanks to a cold front.
The front is already in the Finger Lakes region this morning, but the precipitation is lagging behind the front. Therefore, conditions are still quiet this morning with clouds, a little sun, and comfortable temperatures generally in the low 50s.
Rain is poised just to our northwest and will begin to enter the northern portions of the Finger Lakes this morning. Rain will be most likely along and north of I-90 through the late morning.
During the midday and early afternoon hours, the rain will slink south, but should also break up as thunderstorms develop over Pennsylvania. Almost all the Finger Lakes should see at least some rain today, but the amount of rain will decrease as you head further south. A few locations in the Southern Tier may escape with little more than a few drips of rain.
Temperatures for most of the Finger Lakes will only rise a couple degrees today with highs in the mid and upper 50s. The Southern Tier will get a jump into the low or even mid 60s by midday.
Tonight should be rather quiet with nothing more than a bit of drizzle. Areas of fog will be possible through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s and low 40s. There is a small chance for a few mid 30s if enough of the cloud cover dissipates.
Wednesday will have increasingly sunny skies and no precipitation. A steady north wind will keep temperatures below normal. Highs will range from the low 50s along the shore of Lake Ontario to the mid 50s across the Finger Lakes. A few upper 50s may be found tomorrow afternoon in the Southern Tier.
Late Week Storm System
Clouds will increase Wednesday night and a few showers will be possible after midnight as a large weather system approaches.
The amount of rain on Thursday remains questionable. If it does rain, it will likely not be an all-day rain. The best chance for rain seems to be during the morning and midday hours, but this is subject to change.
Temperatures will start Thursday in the mid 40s. Areas to the west will be warmest, with at least mid 60s likely but temperatures as high as the 70s possible. Further east, temperatures should end up in the 50s or 60s.
Gusty winds will return on Thursday from the south and southeast. Expect top gusts in the 35-45 mph range with the higher elevations seeing the highest gusts.
Rain chances will increase Thursday night. A lull in the action Friday morning could allow temperatures to jump into the upper 60s or low 70s. A few afternoon thunderstorms would be possible in this scenario.
Back Below Normal
Saturday will be the pick day of the weekend, though that is not saying a whole lot.
It should remain dry with some breaks of sunshine. Winds will be gentle. Temperatures will head back below normal though, with highs in the mid 50s.
The forecast for Mother’s Day on Sunday is shaping up to be similar to this past Sunday. A weather system passing to the south will try to spread rain north into the Finger Lakes. How far north the rain makes it is uncertain.
In a worst-case scenario, Sunday will have a steady rain with temperatures locked in the mid 40s. In a best-case scenario, it will be rather cloudy with highs in the 50s. My feeling is that the cold, rainy scenario is more likely.
Clouds and showers may linger into Monday with highs in the 40s or perhaps 50s. Temperatures should moderate back towards normal by the middle of next week.
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