After dry Thursday, rain returns overnight

finger lakes weather forecast thursday may 16 2019 sun clouds rain tonight weekend weather
Thursday will be a generally pleasant day with most areas remaining dry until after midnight tonight. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Some Sun, then Rain

As one weather system departs the Finger Lakes, another approaches. In-between, much of Thursday will turn out to be a pleasant day.

The system that brought showers to the area last night has moved way from the Finger Lakes. A few areas of morning clouds still exist, but skies are sunny further west.

Our next system is located over Minnesota this morning and will race southeast across the Great Lakes today but should not arrive in the Finger Lakes until overnight.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds today, with more sun in the morning and midday hours and more clouds as we head deeper into the afternoon. A very brief shower cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon. Most areas will not see any rain, though.

Winds will be light today from the west-northwest. Temperatures will reach the low and mid 60s with cooler temperatures along the shore of Lake Ontario. With the sun and lack of wind, it should feel rather nice despite being a few degrees below normal.

The chances for rain will increase around midnight. The best chance for rain will come between 3-9 am on Friday. A rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out. A few showers may linger into the late morning across Central New York, but the afternoon looks dry with some sunshine.

Temperatures will drop into the low 50s this evening, then rise back into the mid and upper 50s by dawn Friday. High temperatures Friday will again reach the low and mid 60s.

Weekend Weather

The forecast for the weekend is becoming clearer.

A strong system over the middle of the country and high pressure along the East Coast will set up a warming trend across the eastern United States.

The leading edge of this warm surge will be a warm front that should move into the area on Saturday and set up north of the region on Sunday.

On Saturday, the front will still be rather disorganized and weak. A few showers may exist along the front, but widespread or significant precipitation is not expected.

The best chance for a few showers will be during the morning hours. As things look now, not everyone will see rain Saturday. Outside of any showers, skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, but likely with an emphasis on the clouds.

The warm air will not make it into the area on Saturday, so high temperatures will remain below normal. Most areas should expect low to mid 60s.

Warmer air will begin to move in Saturday night, however. Temperatures will hold in the 50s overnight and should quickly rise through the 60s Sunday morning. It is increasingly likely that Sunday afternoon will be the first day of widespread 80º+ temperatures in the Finger Lakes. As usual, the I-90 Corridor will be warmest with mid 80s possible.

It will also be humid with dewpoints rising into the mid and upper 60s. This will lead to an unstable atmosphere, marked by growing puffy cumulus clouds during the afternoon. However, despite being primed for thunderstorm development, there will be no large-scale mechanism to widespread trigger thunderstorms.

Still, scattered late day showers and storms will pop up due to influences from the cold waters of Lake Ontario and the varying terrain of our region.

Winds will be blustery from the south on Sunday with gusts of 25-35 mph. The highest gusts are expected across the higher elevations of the Southern Tier.

Temperatures Sunday night will remain in the 60s as clouds increase and scattered showers and storms continue. A front will move through Monday morning with drier but still very warm air. Most of Monday should be sunny with highs in the upper 70s.

The weather next week looks generally warm with a few chances for light rain as weak systems pass through. The certainty that these systems will bring rain, as well as their timing, is very low given the weak nature of the systems and the length of time between now and their possible arrival. For the most part though, it looks as though we will get a chance to dry out at least somewhat.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.