Wednesday is off to a sunny start as a bubble of high pressure retains control of our weather.
As the sun climbs higher in the sky, temperatures will quickly warm from the upper 50s and low 60s. Widespread 80s are likely by the early afternoon.
Dewpoints will also be on the rise, pushing into the mid and upper 60s. This will make it feel a bit humid and will set the stage for a few afternoon thunderstorms.
A small disturbance embedded in the jet stream will pass through the region this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop after 2 or 3 PM. Thunderstorms will be most likely east of Seneca Lake. Scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Tier. The northwestern Finger Lakes (north and west of Penn Yan/Geneva) will have the lowest chances for precipitation.
There is a small chance for a few strong wind gusts with any thunderstorms that develop. A severe thunderstorm warning or two may be necessary over the far eastern portions of the region. Widespread severe weather is not expected.
Flash flooding is also not expected with fast moving storms. Many areas will probably not see much, if any rain today.
The chances for rain will diminish by the late afternoon as daytime heating begins to wane and the disturbance presses east.
After a few areas of morning fog in the usual river valleys Thursday morning, the remainder of Thursday should be quiet. Look for sunshine, a few fair weather clouds, and no precipitation. Temperatures will reach a high in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will be lower than today with upper 50s and low 60s.
Active Weekend Weather Pattern
All signs continue to point to an active weather weekend as multiple disturbances and weather systems move through the area.
The timing and strength of these systems remains difficult to pin down, as is often the case with this type of set up. These are important factors, of course, and will determine what, if any severe threat we face this weekend.
For Friday, the day should start out dry before scattered showers and storms develop during the afternoon and/or evening hours. The timing is favorable for storms given temperatures in the low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s.
Another round of showers and storms will be possible early Saturday. If this moves through quick enough, Saturday afternoon could end up mostly dry.
The details on Sunday are the least certain, but it will likely rain at some point during the day.
Monday should be quieter, but more active weather may be on the way for next week.
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