Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Finger Lakes both Wednesday and Thursday, but in the end, the storms yesterday may end up being the most widespread.
A small impulse of energy in the atmosphere is spinning through Western New York this morning. Accompanying this feature is an area of cloud cover over most of the region with rain falling west of Seneca Lake.
This morning’s rain will linger into the early afternoon. This will effectively cut out the western Finger Lakes from most, if not all the thunderstorm development today.
The focus will instead be further east, where some morning sunshine will set the stage and the disturbance will serve as the trigger. Areas east of I-81, and into eastern New York and the Hudson Valley in particular, have the best shot at severe storms today.
Caught in the middle will be the eastern Finger Lakes. With no rain this morning, but limited sunshine, conditions here will be somewhere in between. The time to watch will be from about 1-5 PM.
With a southwest to northeast storm movement, areas further north, such as Auburn, Skaneateles, and Syracuse may have a better chance for some organized storms compared to places like Elmira and Ithaca. Expect some lightning, downpours, a few gusty winds, and perhaps some small hail.
On Thursday, the set up gets flipped. A new system will swing in from the west and interact with a sunny, warm, and humid environment. This time, the best chance for storms will be further west, where the timing of the system coincides with maximum daytime heating. The time to watch will be 4-8 PM.
How far east the storms will get before they fade in the evening is questionable at this point. Storms tomorrow will be capable of damaging winds, large hail, and possibly even a tornado. All of this will be much more likely from northeast Ohio into southwest New York with lesser severe threats in the Finger Lakes.
Be sure to check back tomorrow morning for an update on this set up.
Quieting Down for the Weekend
High pressure will build into the region behind Thursday’s system. This will set us up for a fairly quiet weekend.
Friday looks like it will be a dry day. Look for a mix of clouds and some sun with a steady northwest wind. Top gusts will be between 25-30 mph.
The wind and only partial sunshine will keep temperatures at bay. High temperatures will mostly be in the mid 70s with some low 70s in the higher elevations.
Saturday will be similar. Winds will continue to gust from the northwest as high as 30 mph. Temperatures may even be a degree or two cooler than on Friday with more low 70s and fewer mid 70s. A stray afternoon shower cannot be ruled out.
The wind should keep overnight temperatures in the upper 50s Friday night. Saturday night will be cooler as the wind dies down. Look for morning temperatures between 50-55 degrees Sunday morning. A few 40s may even show up in the typically colder valleys of the Southern Tier.
Winds will continue to come from the northwest on Sunday but will not be as strong. Top gusts should only be around 15 mph. Temperatures will gain a few degrees as a result, with highs returning to the mid and possibly even upper 70s.
The next chance for rain will come sometime early next week, either late Monday or Tuesday. At this early juncture, the front triggering the rain does not look very impressive. Several dry days will be possible again behind the front.
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