Limited lake effect in wake of sloppy storm system

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday november 12 2019 snow amounts lake effect cold
Quieter weather will settle into the Finger Lakes behind last night’s snow and ice, though a few areas of lake effect will stick with us into early Wednesday. [Photo by Melissa Stella]

Quick Recap

The snow and ice that impacted the Finger Lakes overnight has pushed well to the east already this morning.

While I have not seen many reported snow amounts yet, the impression I get is that many areas ended up falling short of projections.

The key all along was the presence of icy and mixed precipitation, and the uncertainty was how far northwest it would end up.

Everything seemed to be going well through my 5 PM update, but then the reports of ice as far northwest as Geneva and Phelps began to come in and much of the evening precipitation remained over Western New York.

facebook comment daring mother nature
A funny, but very true Facebook comment I received on my 5 PM Update last night about the time the surprises started to show up…

The “slight shift in the track and strength of the low pressure” once again occurred. These systems consistently end up too warm and too far northwest relative to the projections given by the models. This has long been a consistent Achilles Heel for local forecasters, myself included.

Thankfully, many of the other forecasts I saw also stressed the uncertainty, so hopefully the lesser amounts were a welcome, but unsurprising result.

Where to from Here

Now, behind the system, we will have cold temperatures to deal with for a couple of days before things start to moderate.

Temperatures this morning range from the upper teens to the mid 20s. Little change is expected throughout the day, with most highs in the low to mid 20s with a few places sneaking into the upper 20s.

Light scattered snow showers will pass through later this morning and into the afternoon with little to no additional accumulation. Road conditions should gradually improve, though most main roads already seem to be in decent shape.

Tonight, there is a brief window for some heavier lake effect bands. These will be very thin and isolated, so most areas will not see heavy snow. The areas most likely to see heavier squalls will be from Monroe county southeastward towards Tompkins and Cortland counties. These squalls should be around during the evening hours before weakening overnight.

I will have a snow report late this afternoon with a map to highlight this better.

Lake effect flurries will linger into Wednesday morning with little impact. These should dissipate by the early afternoon. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the low and mid 20s after morning lows in the teens.

A period of quiet weather will then settle in for the end of the week and the weekend. No precipitation is expected on Thursday or Friday with just a few snow showers Friday night or early Saturday.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will return to the upper 30s and low 40s. Saturday looks cooler, with highs in the mid and upper 20s, but Sunday bounces back into the 30s.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Tom Ames
    |

    Drew:
    Can you provide an address where I can send a check?
    Also, who should I fill the check out to?
    Thanks.

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      Hi Tom! You can make the check out to Finger Lakes Weather LLC and send it to:
      PO Box 326
      Groton, NY 13073

      Thank you so much!!