Low pressure is beginning to take shape along the coast of New Jersey and will become the dominant part of this complex winter storm. The low will remain nearly stationary through the night and Monday morning before slowly meandering eastward.
Just north of the low, a conveyor belt of Atlantic moisture will set up across southern New England and into the Finger Lakes. Widespread moderate to heavy snow with even heavier bands will develop this evening and continue for much of Monday.
This post does not address Phase 1 of the storm, which is now over.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect for the following counties (listed in alphabetical order):
CAYUGA (ALL), CHEMUNG, CORTLAND, ONONDAGA, ONTARIO, SCHUYLER, SENECA, STEUBEN, TIOGA, TOMPKINS, WAYNE, YATES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for the following counties (listed in alphabetical order):
ALLEGANY, GENESSE, LIVINGSTON, MONROE, WYOMING
Spotty freezing drizzle will transition to widespread freezing rain and snow after 7 PM Sunday evening. Precipitation should become all snow quickly, except for areas east of I-81, where an icy mix may linger until midnight.
Snow will be widespread throughout Sunday night, Monday morning, and much of Monday afternoon. Snow will be moderate to heavy in intensity through Sunday night and Monday morning before gradually decreasing in intensity Monday afternoon.
Snow will not completely end until the overnight hours Monday.
The greatest accumulations are expected in Chemung, Schuyler, southern Seneca, southern Cayuga, Tompkins, and Tioga counties. Here, double-digit snow amounts will be common with some areas receiving over a foot.
Amounts will taper off in all directions (except southward into Pennsylvania) from there, with most of the region falling in the 6-10 inch range. Areas west of I-390 will see six inches or less.
These accumulations run from Sunday evening through Monday and do not include what has already fallen during Phase 1.
Temperatures will remain around 30 degrees throughout Sunday evening, Sunday night, and most of Monday. Monday evening, temperatures will fall into the 20s.
Roads remain sloppy to treacherous Sunday afternoon from Phase 1 of the storm. Freezing drizzle will continue to cause travel concerns Sunday afternoon and early in the evening.
High travel impacts are expected overnight and throughout the daytime hours on Monday as snow falls steadily and, at times, heavily. Roads that are not completely thawed of Sunday’s ice before the snow begins to accumulate will become very dangerous.
Travelers should expect to double or triple their commute times Monday. Travel should be avoided unless absolutely necessary.
Road conditions will improve Monday evening as the snow ends. Minor travel problems, mostly on secondary and rural roads, will linger into Tuesday morning.
Winds may gust as high as 25 mph, which may lead to a few areas of minor drifting.
MEDIUM- The general picture outlined above should come to pass, but localized variations should be expected. This will especially be the case where small bands of intense snow develop, resulting in locally higher snow amounts.
FUTURE SNOW OUTLOOK
Snow will intensify Sunday evening and fall heavily into Monday morning. Steady moderate to light snow will continue throughout Monday. Significant accumulations are possible, especially east of Cayuga Lake. Uncertainty remains, however.
Areas of snow are possible Wednesday into early Thursday, and late Friday into early Saturday. Significant accumulations are not expected.
- Regular Monday Morning blog post (Monday AM 7-8 AM)
- Get the forecast for your Zip Code
- Finger Lakes Weather Radar
- Sunday Morning Thoughts on the Winter Storm (still a valid, useful read!)
- Ask Meteorologist Drew Montreuil a question
- Advertise on Finger Lakes Weather
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