Snow Report: Monday, December 2, 2019 (Phase 2)

finger lakes weather snow report monday december 2 2019
The second phase of the current winter storm will begin tonight as snow expands and intensifies over the area. Snow will continue through Monday.

WHAT

Low pressure is beginning to take shape along the coast of New Jersey and will become the dominant part of this complex winter storm. The low will remain nearly stationary through the night and Monday morning before slowly meandering eastward.

Just north of the low, a conveyor belt of Atlantic moisture will set up across southern New England and into the Finger Lakes. Widespread moderate to heavy snow with even heavier bands will develop this evening and continue for much of Monday.

This post does not address Phase 1 of the storm, which is now over.

ALERTS ACTIVE

WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect for the following counties (listed in alphabetical order):
CAYUGA (ALL), CHEMUNG, CORTLAND, ONONDAGA, ONTARIO, SCHUYLER, SENECA, STEUBEN, TIOGA, TOMPKINS, WAYNE, YATES

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for the following counties (listed in alphabetical order):
ALLEGANY, GENESSE, LIVINGSTON, MONROE, WYOMING

WHEN

Spotty freezing drizzle will transition to widespread freezing rain and snow after 7 PM Sunday evening. Precipitation should become all snow quickly, except for areas east of I-81, where an icy mix may linger until midnight.

Snow will be widespread throughout Sunday night, Monday morning, and much of Monday afternoon. Snow will be moderate to heavy in intensity through Sunday night and Monday morning before gradually decreasing in intensity Monday afternoon.

Snow will not completely end until the overnight hours Monday.

finger lakes weather snow map monday december 2 2019
The heaviest snow amounts will be within the pink dotted lines, where many places will see at least 10″ and some may exceed a foot. Click image to enlarge.

HOW MUCH

The greatest accumulations are expected in Chemung, Schuyler, southern Seneca, southern Cayuga, Tompkins, and Tioga counties. Here, double-digit snow amounts will be common with some areas receiving over a foot.

Amounts will taper off in all directions (except southward into Pennsylvania) from there, with most of the region falling in the 6-10 inch range. Areas west of I-390 will see six inches or less.

These accumulations run from Sunday evening through Monday and do not include what has already fallen during Phase 1.

TEMPERATURES

Temperatures will remain around 30 degrees throughout Sunday evening, Sunday night, and most of Monday. Monday evening, temperatures will fall into the 20s.

TRAVEL IMPACTS

Roads remain sloppy to treacherous Sunday afternoon from Phase 1 of the storm. Freezing drizzle will continue to cause travel concerns Sunday afternoon and early in the evening.

High travel impacts are expected overnight and throughout the daytime hours on Monday as snow falls steadily and, at times, heavily. Roads that are not completely thawed of Sunday’s ice before the snow begins to accumulate will become very dangerous.

Travelers should expect to double or triple their commute times Monday. Travel should be avoided unless absolutely necessary.

Road conditions will improve Monday evening as the snow ends. Minor travel problems, mostly on secondary and rural roads, will linger into Tuesday morning.

OTHER IMPACTS

Winds may gust as high as 25 mph, which may lead to a few areas of minor drifting.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

MEDIUM- The general picture outlined above should come to pass, but localized variations should be expected. This will especially be the case where small bands of intense snow develop, resulting in locally higher snow amounts.

FUTURE SNOW OUTLOOK

Snow will intensify Sunday evening and fall heavily into Monday morning. Steady moderate to light snow will continue throughout Monday. Significant accumulations are possible, especially east of Cayuga Lake. Uncertainty remains, however.

Areas of snow are possible Wednesday into early Thursday, and late Friday into early Saturday. Significant accumulations are not expected.

FUTURE UPDATES

  • Regular Monday Morning blog post (Monday AM 7-8 AM)

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

12 Responses

  1. Avatar
    John Gregoire
    | Reply

    At 0700 we had a solid 9 inches. Phase 1 was a halh inch of sleet which melted to 0.40. The 9 inches yielded 0.57. Snowing hard.

  2. Avatar
    Carolyn
    | Reply

    Thanks @Greg – yes I wouldn’t count on the time either, good point. As long as they arrive safely. Thanks Drew for your great website and reporting.

  3. Avatar
    Diane
    | Reply

    Hi, Drew. I have a question similar to Laurie’s about commuting. I live in Ithaca and teach college in Elmira. The school usually goes with “use your discretion whether to cancel classes” and hasn’t cancelled tomorrow’s classes campus-wide. Do you think route 13 South of Ithaca and Elmira roads will be quite safe or might my discretion rather lead toward cancelling my classes? Tompkins County Sheriff has ordered drivers to stay off the roads until further notice.
    Thanks for your great forecasting,
    Diane

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      | Reply

      I would cancel. All roads tomorrow will be bad.

  4. Avatar
    Carolyn
    | Reply

    The Coach bus from NYC to Ithaca leaves at 3pm and arrives Ithaca about 8pm. Nervous to put my student on that bus – what are conditions likely to be at 8pm?

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      | Reply

      By 8pm it should be just light snow lingering. Main roads will be slow but probably manageable

    • Avatar
      Greg Mccalley
      | Reply

      The bus for students at TC3 left NYC a little after three. It’s just now getting close to campus, due in about 20 minutes..almost seven hours to get here. I wouldn’t count on it getting there by eight.

      • Avatar
        Greg Mccalley
        | Reply

        Oops. Meant it left NYC at elven, not three.

  5. Avatar
    Laurie
    | Reply

    Hi Drew,
    I teach college in Geneva but live in Ithaca. I’m thinking it might not be a safe commute tomorrow. Should I cancel my classes? Alas, my institution seems to be relying on individual discretion. (Fingers crossed the answer is yes!) thanks!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      | Reply

      Yes cancelling would be best. Enjoy the snow day!

  6. Avatar
    Jenn
    | Reply

    I’ve noticed you never mention Broome County – why?

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      | Reply

      Broome county is not technically in the area I specifically forecast for. It shows on my maps but I don’t have zip code forecasts set up for it, or weather alerts (though no alerts work currently). I’ve thought about adding it though…

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