Calm Thursday ahead of windy, wet weekend

High Pressure Passes By

An area of high pressure has moved overhead early Thursday morning.

There are a few lingering lake effect snow showers this morning, but the high pressure should help end these rather quickly. By the mid-morning hours, the region should be snow free with generally sunny skies.

Winds will be nearly calm, a stark difference from the winds of yesterday and last night, and the winds to come this weekend. The wind will pick up a bit late this afternoon from the south and southeast as the high pressure departs to the east.

Thin clouds will filter some sunshine this afternoon as they race in ahead of this weekend’s weather system.

Temperatures, which are starting in the teens and single digits, will rise to around or just shy of 30 degrees. Central New York is the most likely area to stay in the upper 20s this afternoon.

Overnight temperatures will slip a couple degrees this evening, but then increase overnight. By Friday morning, low 40s will be possible in the Rochester area with low 30s in Central New York.

Windy, Wet Weather

Precipitation will move back into the region Friday morning. The chances for some freezing rain over the eastern Finger Lakes remains a possibility. Pinpointing how far west the freezing rain will go is tricky with a razor thin margin in temperatures between rain and ice.

Areas east of Seneca Lake have the best chance for a thin glaze of ice, and the I-81 Corridor has the best chance for more than just a thin glaze.

Precipitation should become all rain by Friday afternoon with a steady stream of off and on showers during the day.

South winds will continue through the day but will not yet turn too gusty. With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be slower to rise, with most areas ranging between the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

Rain will shift north Friday night as warmer air moves in in earnest. By Saturday morning, the coldest temperatures should be mid 40s while the Rochester area rises above 50 degrees.

Winds will increase with gusts over 40 mph, especially over higher elevations. A few breaks of sunshine may be possible along with a few scattered showers.

Saturday’s temperatures should reach the mid 50s. A sharp gradient in temperatures will develop to the north and may sneak into the far northwestern Finger Lakes Saturday evening. Areas along the shore of Lake Ontario could suddenly drop back into the 30s if this boundary moves in while the remainder of the region remains in the mid 50s for the evening.

The boundary will be pushed back north temporarily as a push of even warmer air moves in near or just before dawn Sunday. Temperatures are this time will push 60 degrees, but a cold front will quickly move in.

A band of rain and burst of wind will accompany the front. Even some thunder and lightning will be possible. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph will be possible immediately after the front passes. The wind will then retreat to the 30-40 mph range before rebuilding to 40-50 mph as a second cold front moves through.

The first front will send temperatures back into the low 50s. The second front will be slower to cross the region, so the eastern half of the region may remain in the 50s for a good chunk of Sunday. By the evening, though, everyone should be down into the 30s.

Precipitation will be long gone by this time though, so no snow is expected with this system. Rain totals from Friday through Sunday will be greatest near Lake Ontario, where over an inch could fall. The Southern Tier will see the least, with amounts around a half-inch.

Winds will drastically decrease Sunday afternoon and become nearly calm Sunday night. With clearing skies, temperatures Monday morning should get down into the mid 20s.

Monday looks quiet and sunny with highs in the low 40s across the Southern Tier with upper 30s to the north. There will be a small chance for some precipitation Wednesday, but a better chance for precipitation, most likely rain, on Thursday.