Low pressure will bring a quick shot of snow Tuesday morning along with gusty winds.
WHAT
An area of low pressure will pass through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada on Tuesday.
Precipitation out ahead of the low will arrive in the Finger Lakes from west to east near or just before dawn. This precipitation will start as moderate snow. After a few hours of snow, precipitation will turn to rain and taper to scattered showers.
A period of gusty south winds will accompany the snow during Tuesday morning. These winds will lead to warming temperatures with afternoon highs well into the 40s for most areas.
ALERTS ACTIVE
No winter weather or wind alerts are in effect for the Finger Lakes as of Monday afternoon. Winter weather alerts are not anticipated, but there is a small chance wind advisories may be issued.
WHEN
Snow will move into the Finger Lakes from west to east between 4-7 AM. A brief period of snow may precede the steadier snow by 1-3 hours.
Steady snow will fall for 2-5 hours before turning to rain and tapering off. Most of Tuesday afternoon will be dry with only a passing rain shower or some drizzle. Areas of fog will also be possible during the day and evening hours on Tuesday.
HOW MUCH
Higher elevations in the western Southern Tier have the best shot at seeing over two inches of snow. Other higher elevations may see up to two inches. Lower elevations should see an inch or less of snow accumulation.
TEMPERATURES
Temperatures will rise into the low 30s by the time the snow starts early Tuesday morning. Temperatures will reach the mid 30s by the mid-morning before peaking in the low and mid 40s Tuesday afternoon.
TRAVEL IMPACTS
Many major roads, and roads at lower elevations, including the Thruway, will likely see little to no travel impacts with primarily wet roads.
The greatest travel impacts will be on rural, higher elevation roads, which will likely become snow covered and slushy for a time Tuesday morning. All roads should be in good, just wet condition Tuesday afternoon.
OTHER IMPACTS
Wind gusts around 40 mph will be possible for several hours during the morning.
Areas of dense fog will be possible, especially from the late morning Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
Medium- Any time precipitation is changing phase, there is some uncertainty and local variations should be expected. Given the snow to rain event last week resulted in lower than expected snow amounts, my forecast amounts are slightly under model guidance.
The development of fog behind the main precipitation area is also slightly uncertain.
FUTURE SNOW OUTLOOK
Lake effect flurries and a few squalls will be possible on Wednesday, especially in the morning, and again on Thursday. These bouts of lake effect are not expected to have major impacts but could lead to some localized accumulations.
FUTURE UPDATES
- Regular Tuesday morning blog post (Between 7-8 AM Tuesday)
- Wednesday Snow Report, if necessary (Between 3-5 PM Tuesday)
- Regular Wednesday morning blog post (Between 7-8 AM Wednesday)
- Thursday Snow Report, if necessary (Between 3-5 PM Wednesday)
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
- Get the forecast for your Zip Code
- Finger Lakes Weather Radar
- Ask Meteorologist Drew Montreuil a question
- Advertise on Finger Lakes Weather
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Jim
I heard that a more winter weather pattern is starting to take shape for March. Any truth to that?
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
For about the past 2 months (at least) the long range models have been showing colder air moving in during the 3-6 week window…and it has never arrived. Yeah, March looks a bit below normal in temperatures right now, but I would guess we will probably end up closer to what the rest of the winter has had…