Windy and eventually rainy
A large storm system centered near Chicago this morning will be the primary influence on our weather for the next three days.
Some clouds and a few isolated showers are moving through the area this morning in response to a push of warmer air aloft. Most areas will not see rain this morning, and those that do will only have brief, light showers.
Much of the day will be rain-free with clouds and some breaks of sun mixing in. A few more rain showers will be possible this afternoon, but again, not everyone will get them.
Blustery southeast winds will develop with gusts of 30-40 mph this afternoon. The wind will not decrease this evening and may even become a bit stronger after midnight with 40-45 mph gusts.
Temperatures this afternoon should push into the 60s for most of the region. Only areas along and east of I-81 are now expected to remain in the upper 50s. Many areas will see low and mid 60s with a few upper 60s near Rochester.
Overnight, on and off showers will be possible with temperatures remaining in the neighborhood of 50 degrees. A few showers will persist into Thursday morning.
A band of heavier rain will develop for the afternoon tomorrow and will slowly push east into the evening. Downpours within this band of rain may lead to locally excessive rainfall (2”+) and some flooding will be possible. I am most concerned with this possibility for the southeastern corner of our region, including Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland.
There are not currently any flood watches for our area, but watches are widespread across areas to our south and east. The decision to issue watches rests with the National Weather Service, but I personally feel watches would be prudent in Chemung, Tioga, Tompkins, and Cortland counties, and possibly Schuyler, Cayuga, and Onondaga counties as well.
UPDATE- Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service issued flash flood watches for Steuben, Chemung, Schuyler, Tompkins, Tioga, and Cortland counties.
Wind will continue Thursday until the band of rain moves in. Gusts may approach 50 mph late Thursday afternoon over the eastern half of the region. Temperatures will also remain warm with highs in the 60s, but with a drop into the 40s behind the rain band.
By Friday, the low pressure will be located along the East Coast. A few showers will be possible behind the low. This will especially be the case from midday Friday into the afternoon when a few thunderstorms could also develop.
Temperatures Friday will be cooler, with highs in the low 50s.
High pressure will build in for Saturday, pushing the low out to sea. After a few morning clouds, skies should turn sunny. A few thin clouds may work in late in the afternoon.
Temperatures will be close to the seasonal norms for early May with highs around 60 degrees.
Sunday should be warmer, with highs well into the 60s. Some sun will be possible, but clouds will gradually thicken and a few late day showers will be possible.
Low pressure will pass nearby Sunday night with an outside chance for a widespread, moderate rainfall.
This system will slowly pull away on Monday with lingering showers. A shot of cool air will move in behind, with highs Tuesday in the 40s. No snow is expected with this weather system, though temperatures will remain cool throughout next week.