Temperatures peak as small rain chances return

finger lakes weather forecast thursday june 18 2020 sunny hot small rain chances
Temperatures will reach their peak today and again on Sunday as small chances for rain are finally reintroduced to the forecast. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Most Areas Will Stay Dry

High pressure off the coast of New England remains in control of our weather, but its grip has slightly loosened as it meanders southeast.

This will allow some moisture to seep northward from the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, where it is has been a cloudy, rainy week.

The first small chances for rain will come today, mostly for the counties that border Pennsylvania. As cumulus clouds bubble up today, a few will produce some tiny showers across the Southern Tier. Even there, though, the overwhelming majority of the region will stay dry.

Further north, clouds will be fewer and smaller, and temperatures will reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Mid 80s are more likely in the south.

Skies will clear tonight with lows in the low 60s.

Friday will be similar today, only the entire region will have an entry into the rain shower lottery. Showers and a few thunderstorms will pop up in the afternoon, but will be very isolated and very small. The chances of actually seeing rain are minimal.

High temperatures will mostly be in the mid 80s, though a few upper 80s will still be possible near I-90.

The chances for rain will be a little higher on Saturday, but not much. Temperatures will mirror Friday with mid and a few upper 80s.

Sunday looks to be more like today, with fewer showers and storms and temperatures bouncing back up to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

Winds today will be a little stronger than in recent days, coming from the southeast at 5-10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Friday and Saturday will have south winds at or below 5 mph with minimal gusting. Sunday will be the windiest upcoming day, with south winds around 10 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday june 18 2020
Click to enlarge.

Better Rain Chances

A series of weak systems will move through the region early next week, bringing increased chances for rain.

Waves of energy will interact with the heat and modest humidity Monday and Tuesday. Rounds of rain and some thunder are likely on both days.

The timing and intensity of these rain events remain uncertain, especially Tuesday’s. Rainfall amounts on Monday will most likely be closer to a quarter-inch. The models show more variability in amounts on Tuesday.

The rain these two days may lessen the acceleration of our dry weather, but is unlikely to put a significant dent in it.

Severe weather does not appear to be a major concern at this point, but this will be something to continue to watch over the coming days.

The rain chances will decrease on Wednesday with uncertainty dominating the models beyond that.

Temperatures should remain warm next week with highs in the mid 80s, pending the rain, on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The end of next week looks a bit cooler as temperatures moderate back towards the seasonal average.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.