Stalled Pattern
A large low pressure system in the upper atmosphere remains cut off from the Jet Stream and stalled out over New England.
A bit of energy spinning around the low has some clouds in the region this morning. Sunshine will gradually increase, especially this afternoon, but so too will the chances for a few showers.
The scattered pop-up showers and storms may make it further west today, possibly making it as far as Cayuga or even Seneca Lake. This is not to say that a shower is impossible further west, but they will be few and far between.
Even in these eastern areas, rain is not a guarantee. Still, a few showers and rumbles of thunder should pop-up, taking an uncommon path moving from northeast to southwest.
With the extra clouds today, temperatures will be a touch cooler with highs mostly in the mid and upper 70s.
Showers and clouds will dissipate tonight before we do it all over again tomorrow. Look for some clouds in the morning, a few showers in the afternoon, especially in the east, and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Winds both today and tomorrow will be from the north at 5-10 mph with gusts between 15-25 mph.
Turning Hotter
The persistent low will finally kick out over the Atlantic Ocean by Thursday. The removal of the low and its relatively cooler air aloft will allow warmer air to work in from the northwest in another uncommon weather pattern.
Therefore, even with northerly winds at the surface continuing for Thursday, a significant jump in temperature is expected.
Highs Thursday will be in the mid and upper 80s for most of the Finger Lakes, but a few 90+ degree readings are likely along and near I-90.
Thursday will be sunny through the Finger Lakes, but a few more isolated showers may sneak into the eastern Southern Tier.
Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds. A weak disturbance will dive southeast over eastern New York with clouds and some scattered showers. Here in the Finger Lakes though, temperatures should again range from the mid 80s to the low 90s.
The heat will back off a little on Saturday with highs in the low and mid 80s, but will bounce right back and intensify.
Widespread low and mid 90s will be possible Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and even Wednesday next week. This is still a bit far in advance to be certain of, but the chances for a prolonged heat event seem to be increasing.
Humidity levels will be low Thursday and Friday thanks to the northerly flow of air, but south winds over the weekend and next week will make it increasingly muggy.
