Tropical Storm Fay
As expected, Tropical Storm Fay developed last night along the coast of North Carolina and is lifting northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Clouds from Fay have already entered southeastern New York this morning with rain slowly lifting north through New Jersey.
Fay is not expected to strengthen any more, though its area of rain may increase in size slightly. Fay will continue moving northward, making landfall near Atlantic City, NJ this afternoon.
Meanwhile, here in the Finger Lakes, it will continue to be sunny and hot, though some afternoon cloudiness will work into much of the region. These clouds will probably filter, but not completely block out the sun.
A stray shower or storm this afternoon over far western portions of the region will be possible.
Highs should not be as hot as yesterday, except in Wayne and Monroe counties, where mid 90s will again be possible. Most of the rest of the region will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Rain from Fay could start working into the region as early as the evening hours, mainly impacting areas near and east of Seneca Lake. There will be a very sharp cut-off between areas that see no rain, and those that see a quarter-inch or more.
I typically do not like rainfall maps, as rainfall is highly variable, even over a scale of a couple miles. Most rainfall maps you see are computer model generated and have little resemblance to reality.
However, I’ve made a rough estimate rainfall map to show the areas most likely to see rain from Fay. The heaviest rain should stay well to our east, but if a couple thundery downpours develop, our eastern areas could see locally heavier amounts.
Again, do not take this rainfall map for more than it is — a rough estimate to give you an idea what type of rain you may see tonight. Forecast confidence is low, as even a slight shift or a thundery downpour will lead to amounts far outside these zones.
The rain should pull out early Saturday morning. Most likely, it will be gone by dawn, but the map is valid through 9 AM in case it lingers a bit longer.
Not Done With Rain
After Fay departs, focus shifts to a non-tropical storm system slowly moving in behind Fay.
Between these systems, a period of sunshine and heating should take place Saturday morning into the early or mid-afternoon. Temperatures will push well into the 80s with a few places making a run at 90 degrees.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms should then fire up in the late afternoon. Some gusty winds, along with heavy rain and lightning, will be possible. Widespread severe weather is not expected.
There is a small flash flood chance if some areas see heavy downpours both from Fay and from thunderstorms.
This system will hang around for Sunday but will have fewer and weaker showers and storms. Temperatures Sunday should be in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Another system will bring some rain on Monday with a few lingering showers into Tuesday.
Hot weather will make another run at our region late next week.
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