Quiet, warm start to the weekend ahead of stormy pattern

finger lakes weather forecast friday july 31 2020 sun clouds weekend weather storms sunday isaias
Friday and Saturday will be mild days with mixed skies, but active, stormy weather is on the horizon. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Friday-Saturday Weather

High pressure building into the Great Lakes will keep an active storm track to the south until late in the weekend.

Both Friday and Saturday will have some enjoyable outdoor weather because of this pattern.

Clear skies this morning will give way to some scattered fair weather clouds during the second half of the day. Thin cirrus clouds may also work in from the south from time to time.

No rain is expected and temperatures will be warm, but not hot, as they top out near the seasonal average. Low 80s are likely for most areas, with a few upper 70s in higher elevations.

Thin clouds should increase tonight, but temperatures will still drop into the low 60s and upper 50s.

Saturday will continue to see increasing clouds, and by the afternoon, the sunshine should be filtered noticeably.

Still, widespread mid 80s are likely as warmer air moves in above the surface.

Today’s winds will be from the north or northeast at around 5 mph while Saturday’s winds will be light and variable.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday july 31 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Stormy Pattern

Starting Sunday, we will have several chances for beneficial rain in our region, but not without some uncertainties and concerns.

First, a warm front will lift through the region late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. A round of rain and embedded thunderstorms is likely.

The question then becomes how quickly the rain and clouds move out and whether the parent low pressure system is close enough as it passes to our northwest to trigger additional afternoon showers and storms.

Strong south and southwest winds will set up behind the warm front for Sunday with gusts over 40 mph possible. These winds will push temperatures into the mid 80s again Sunday afternoon and greatly increase the humidity.

One limiting factor to the storm potential Sunday will be that the atmosphere is too warm above the surface, but given the strong winds, concern for severe weather is still warranted if afternoon storms develop. This will continue to be monitored and updates will be provided this weekend.

Another front will move in on Tuesday next week at the same time that now Hurricane Isaias should be tracking up the Mid-Atlantic coast.

While direct impacts from Isaias are unlikely here, the increase in moisture ahead of Isaias may interact with the front and increase the rain we would have otherwise gotten.

Thankfully, with both Sunday’s and Tuesday’s rain, the chances for excessive, flood producing rains here in the Finger Lakes currently look low. Both systems could produce rain amounts of 4+ inches elsewhere, so this too will be something to continue watching.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.