Disturbance Passing Through
A wave of energy in the jet stream will interact with a stalled frontal boundary to bring some scattered showers to the Finger Lakes.
None of the features in the atmosphere are particularly robust, and the weather models are having a difficult time handling them. This makes pinpointing the where and when of the rain a very low confidence task.
So far this morning, the majority of the rain has been falling east of an Elmira-Ithaca-Cortland line and especially in northeast Pennsylvania and Central New York.
This corridor may become a favored area for rain, but at least some scattered showers should develop further north and west into the Finger Lakes. This will especially be the case during the afternoon hours.
With the scattered showers, heavier downpours will be possible. The speed of these showers will be slow, so any downpours could produce some limited minor flooding.
On the flip side, the further northwest, the lower the chances for rain. Undoubtedly, some portions of the Finger Lakes will see little to no rain today, while others see over an inch.
Outside of the showers, there may be some breaks of sun. Areas that see this happen could have temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Most areas will settle around, or if it is particularly rainy, slightly below 75 degrees.
Showers will diminish, but not completely dissipate this evening. Isolated, brief, light showers will linger through the overnight and into the first half of Saturday. Downpours and steady rain are unlikely during these time periods.
Warming Trend
Saturday afternoon should see a gradual decrease in clouds. As the sun comes out, temperatures will push towards 80 degrees.
A batch of thin clouds may pass through the region during the first half of Sunday, filtering some of the sunshine. The clouds will move on by the afternoon, leaving the area sunny.
Winds will be from the southwest on Sunday, helping push temperatures into the low and mid 80s.
Monday will continue the warming trend, with most areas falling between 85-90 degrees. A few isolated showers or storms may pop up during the afternoon, especially in the higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Central New York.
A cold front will move through early Tuesday. The timing of the front is poor for our rain chances, but a few showers or morning storms may be possible. A frontal passage later in the day could lead to higher rain chances, but all in all this front does not look like a huge producer of rain.
The front may stall out to the south and remain nearby into late next week. Waves of energy along the front will spawn areas of rain and thunder, but it is too early to determine with any certainty whether the front will be near enough to bring that rain into our area.
On days where it is not rainy, it should still be plenty warm with highs well into the 80s.
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