Warm, mostly dry weekend for the FLX

finger lakes weather forecast friday august 21 2020 warm weekend
Warm weather is back in the Finger Lakes and should continue into next week. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

High Pressure Keeping Control

Warm weather is moving back into the Finger Lakes on the backside of an area of high pressure that should keep most of the region dry this weekend.

There will be a couple small chances for isolated showers, though.

Today will be marked by ample sunshine and just a few passing clouds. The only chance for rain will come late this afternoon and evening near the shore of Lake Ontario. Here, a stray shower or storm will be possible.

High temperatures today will push into the low and mid 80s. For some areas, this will be nearly 40 degrees warmer than it was yesterday morning.

Winds today will be from the west around 5 mph until a turn to the northwest during the second half of the afternoon. As the winds shift, they should increase, with speeds up to 10 mph and gusts to 25 mph. This wind shift will take place first across the north and will travel south, clearing the region by the late afternoon.

Tonight should be mostly clear with overnight temperatures in the 60s for most with some 50s in the Southern Tier.

Saturday will have a mix of sun and clouds. The morning may be marked by a deck of thin clouds for areas south of I-90, while the afternoon will have the typical summertime fair weather clouds. One or two of these could produce a brief, isolated shower.

Temperatures should be held in check by the clouds with most areas staying at or below 85 degrees. Light northwest winds will blow at or under 5 mph.

Sunday is also looking mostly dry now, with showers and storms focusing on northern New York and some lesser activity across Pennsylvania. The lack of rain and ample sunshine should help temperatures push or even exceed 90 degrees for much of the region.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 21 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Looking to Next Week with an eye on the Gulf of Mexico

The projections for next week continue to be messy, as they have for days now, but they are not quite as chaotic as they have been.

Unfortunately, the chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday are decreasing. Both days have a greater chance for rain than this weekend, but not as great a chance as was showing.

One or both days should have at least a few scattered showers and storms in the area with a small chance for more widespread activity.

Temperatures these days will ultimately depend on the presence of rain. If there is no rain, the heat will remain uninterrupted with more upper 80s and low 90s. If rain breaks the heat, look for highs in the low and mid 80s. Either way, it should be plenty humid.

The story reads mostly the same for Wednesday and Thursday, which both still have large variations in the possible weather conditions. If there is rain, it will be cooler, possibly with 70s for highs. More likely, though, it will not rain much if at all, and temperatures will remain warm.

Late in the week, a front should make a run at our region, bringing in much cooler weather for next weekend and early next week.

The big question will be whether this front will suck up any moisture from one of the two potential hurricanes that will be in the Gulf of Mexico making landfall during the middle of the week.

Having two active tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time is quite rare, and there is no telling how well the models will handle this scenario, especially after they are inland and begin interacting with one another more. Stay tuned!

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.