Areas of rain will pass through the region today and again on Wednesday. The threat for locally heavy rain is limited to today. Showers will extend into at least Thursday. The next weather system will then target the area sometime Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will drop with the clouds and rain, then work back toward 80 degrees by the weekend.
Published Tuesday, July 28
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Expires: July 28, 2026 12:15 pm
Tuesday
What: Rain and thunderstorm
Low pressure will pass overhead on today. Areas of rain have already been passing through the region and will continue to do so throughout the day. As of 9 AM, an area of heavy rain with flash flood warnings was located over southwestern New York. This area should slowly track east across the Southern Tier and southern Finger Lakes and will be the focal point for heavy rain and thunder. Further north, the rain will likely be more showery.
There should be a relative lull in the precipitation overnight with just some scattered showers as the heaviest rain sets up over the Catskills region.
The flooding risk remains minimal across our area as a whole, but there may be some small pockets that see excessive rain that leads to some nuisance or small-scale flash flooding. Just like with severe thunderstorms, any flash flood warnings that are issued will show up in this post automatically.
Temperatures will peak in the low 70s. It will be humid with dewpoints well into the 60s. Wind direction will be variable as the low passes through the region with speeds up to 10 mph.
Wednesday
What: Returning rain
The lull from Tuesday night may carry over into the first part of Wednesday, but rain will eventually increase and become widespread and steady. Heavy downpours are unlikely tomorrow with most areas seeing an additional half-inch of rainfall or less. Flooding should not be a concern tomorrow. Rain will gradually taper to showers during the evening and overnight.
Temperatures will struggle to get above 70 degrees. Dewpoints will be in the mid and upper 60s. Winds will be from the northwest around 10 mph, though some eastern areas near I-81 and especially Syracuse may see lighter winds at times.
Thursday
What: Scattered showers.
Low pressure will weaken and track toward New York City by Thursday. However, scattered showers are still likely over the area. Rainfall amounts will be low and the rain will be more on-and-off instead of steady. Winds will be from the north-northwest with speeds of 10-15 mph. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds.
Low pressure should push far enough to the east to reduce our chances for rain. Currently, it looks like Friday may end up dry, but there is still some uncertainty.
Winds will be from the northwest at around 5 mph, turning light and variable late in the day. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will remain in the low and mid 60s.
Saturday
What: Scattered showers
A few scattered showers may pop up on Saturday as a subtle boundary left behind by the low pressure system lingers over the region. Anything that falls should be brief and many areas may not see any rain. Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s with light south winds around 5 mph. Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s, keeping humidity levels steady.
Sunday
What: A few showers, storms
The next weather system will approach the area late Sunday, possibly triggering some showers and storms in the late afternoon and evening hours. Details remain uncertain this far in advance, and a quicker approach could mean more afternoon rain, while a slower approach could keep the day completely dry. High temperatures should be somewhere around 80 degrees.
Monday
What: Scattered showers
Scattered showers may linger into Monday as the associated cold front moves through the area. Like Sunday, the details are uncertain this far in advance.
Next Week
After the Sunday-Monday system passes through, there is not a lot of agreement on the models how the rest of the week will turn out. The latter part of the week looks slightly more likely to see rain, but some models favor the middle of the week instead. Temperatures should be close to or above 80 degrees most days.
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