Sunny and warm weekend ahead of hope for rain next week

finger lakes weather forecast friday september 25 2020 sunny warm weekend drought
Sunny and warm weather will persist through the weekend while next week still holds the hope for some beneficial rain. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Staying Dry and Mild

The sunshine is back for the Finger Lakes after yesterday’s clouds, and temperatures will continue their upward trend, too.

Skies are mostly clear this morning and should remain sun-filled throughout the day today. There is a bit of wildfire smoke passing through as well. While not as much as earlier this week or last week, it may still be enough to filter the sun a little.

Winds will be nearly calm today, yet what little breeze there is will be from the south or southwest. Combined with the sunshine, this should help temperatures be a bit warmer than yesterday.

Look for afternoon highs to reach the upper 70s for many areas with pockets of low 80s, especially near I-90. Temperatures will then slowly back through the 60s and into the 50s tonight.

Saturday will have a few passing clouds but will mostly remain sunny. Winds will be stronger, coming from the south at 5-10 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph.

More areas should hit or exceed 80 degrees tomorrow, and nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

The trend will continue into Sunday as well. All but a few higher elevations should push into the 80s, while Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties and surrounding areas should reach the mid 80s. Ample sunshine and winds similar to Saturday are expected.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday september 25 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Rain Chances Next Week

A few scattered showers may drift through the region on Monday, particularly in the morning. Any rain that falls will be light and insignificant in regard to our drought.

There will still be sunshine, but clouds will be plentiful as well. Temperatures will retreat a few degrees as a result, with low 80s in the north and upper 70s across the south.

After discussing the chaos showing on the models yesterday, there have been a couple trends we can put some cautious trust in.

First is a slow moving cold front later Tuesday afternoon or evening. This front looks as though it will bring a moderate rainfall, but we are still far enough out for this to be uncertain. Heavier rain amounts will be possible if thunderstorms can form.

Temperatures Tuesday will depend on the evolution of the frontal passage but should still be plenty mild. Wednesday will start to see cooler air return with highs probably ending up in the 60s.

A second, more potent system is then expected on Thursday. There is less agreement on the models on the path of this system, so our rain chances are more uncertain. The potential for heavy rain is higher, however, if it does rain.

There is still an alternative scenario to be considered where these two events merge into a single, more significant system with heavy rain on Wednesday. This is much less likely, however.

Regardless, temperatures will continue to fall and should end up in the 50s for the end of next week and into the weekend.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.