More of the Same This Weekend
The pattern of the last few days will linger into the weekend with the occasional shower and a mix of sun and clouds.
Clouds and showers today will be from a combination of low pressure riding north along the Atlantic Coast and influence from the Great Lakes.
A few showers from the coastal system are skirting through the eastern half of the Finger Lakes this morning, while areas further west have some breaks in the cloud cover.
The coastal low will pull away through the morning, leaving more sunshine and transitioning the rain threat to entirely lake effect. As such, the best chance for rain through the afternoon will be for areas closer to the shore of Lake Ontario. Lake Erie may spit a few showers into the western half of the Finger Lakes as well.
Temperatures today will mostly be in the mid and upper 50s, though a few places are bound to reach 60 degrees during sunnier periods. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph with directions varying between southwest, west, and northwest.
Clouds should remain scattered about through the nighttime hours, preventing temperatures from falling too far. Low and mid 40s will be common Saturday morning. A few pockets of upper 30s will be possible across the Southern Tier if there are some breaks in the clouds.
Another small disturbance will pass by early Saturday. A few showers will be possible, especially north of I-90 through 9 AM, spreading to areas east of Cayuga Lake through the midday hours.
Outside of the showers, expect some breaks of sunshine. Highs will be cooler than today, mostly in the low and mid 50s. Northwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph.
Periods of clearing are more likely Saturday night, but clouds will not completely move out. Sunday morning lows should be in the 30s with pockets of frost throughout the Southern Tier and into the areas of Central New York south of Syracuse. The rest of the region should stay near or just above 40 degrees.
Morning sunshine will gradually get replaced with clouds on Sunday, and a few showers may work their way in during the latter part of the afternoon. South winds of 5-10 mph will help push temperatures back to the upper 50s and low 60s.
Looking at Next Week
No big shifts in the weather pattern are expected next week as we stay cool and unsettled.
Rain showers will be possible on Monday, but the expected system has been trending weaker and less organized on the models over the last few days.
At this point, I would only expect a few showers here and there with rainfall amounts that are not meaningful.
With the extra clouds and showers Monday, highs will likely fall short of 60 degrees.
Tuesday looks like the best chance for a completely dry day. Sunshine will have to mix with clouds from an incoming system, though. Those clouds and the south winds ahead of the system should prevent any early week frost.
Highs Tuesday will get a boost from the south winds and sunshine, reaching the mid 60s.
Wednesday looks rainy as a cold front moves through. While it seems likely that it will rain, the chances of seeing over a half-inch of rain are low, as things stand now.
Temperatures will bottom out Thursday and Friday with highs struggling even to get into the low 50s. Frost could be a concern Friday and especially Saturday morning.
A warmer pattern should then take hold with highs ranging through the 60s and possibly into the 70s throughout next weekend and the following week.
