Quiet Until Sunday
The weather complex that brought rain to the area yesterday and a few flakes early this morning is pulling away.
The main area of precipitation is already well east of the region, but a few pockets of drizzle and a few flurries linger, partially aided by the Great Lakes.
For the most part, though, today will be a quiet, cloudy, and chilly day.
A few glimpses of sunshine will poke through the overcast here and there, but the cloud should not really start to break up until overnight.
Winds will be from the northwest at around 10 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph. Most areas will end up a degree or two on either side of 40 this afternoon.
The stubbornness of the clouds will prevent it from getting extremely cold tonight, though most will see temperatures around or just below 30 degrees.
A few clouds may linger early Saturday, but sunny skies should take over quickly. Clear skies will linger into the evening, lit up by the full moon.
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Winds will be nearly calm Saturday morning as high pressure passes overhead. South winds will develop behind the center of the high Saturday afternoon and will pick up speed Saturday night.
High temperatures Saturday will be in the mid 40s with evening temperatures in the mid and upper 30s. Closer to dawn, temperatures will start to push back toward 40 degrees.
Winds will be blustery by Sunday morning with gusts of 30-40 mph, still from the south. Temperatures will quickly jump to around 50 despite increasing clouds.
A cold front will move through during the afternoon with some showers. Cold air will rush in behind the front, with 30s returning to the area by dinnertime.
Shot of Snow, then Warming Up
A period of lake enhanced snow showers is likely to develop Sunday night and will continue through Monday and into early Tuesday.
The snow showers should be widespread Sunday night into early Monday before becoming more localized southeast of Lake Ontario. Once again, elevation will be a factor, and the hills of Central New York have the best shot at seeing some minor accumulations.
Besides the snow showers, Monday will be windy, with gusts possibly as high as 45-50 mph. Temperatures will mostly be in the upper 30s.
A few flurries may linger into Tuesday morning, but the rest of the day will trend sunnier. Winds will still be blustery, but not as strong as Monday. Temperatures should be a touch warmer, getting above 40 for most.
The weather will then undergo a dramatic change as 60 degree warmth surges back in for Wednesday. This will kick off another prolonged period of above-average temperatures, and unfortunately, dry weather.
Despite the rain yesterday and in recent weeks, much of the region is still facing a significant rainfall deficit from the summer. It will take more than one or two moderate rainfalls to undo that.