Rain returns ahead of cold front

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday november 11 2020 rain cold front
Rain showers ahead of a cold front will stick around for much of the day today, especially for the eastern half of the region. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Showery Veteran’s Day

A cold front will slowly move through the Finger Lakes today and is already resulting in areas of rain this morning.

As of 7 AM, the rain band was relatively narrow, stretching from Syracuse south-westward toward Auburn, Ithaca, Watkins Glen, and Bath. The band should expand this morning as a wave of moisture over Pennsylvania works north.

There may be a few of these expansion waves today as the front creeps eastward. Rain should be expected off and on throughout the day around the above-mentioned locations and areas to the east.

To the west, some additional showers will continue to be possible, especially this morning. However, the bulk of the rain should stay to the east and most of the time, today will be dry.

Within the rain, a few heavier downpours may be possible, which could locally push rain amounts well over a half-inch.

Temperatures will reach the low and mid 60s today with the front not expected to clear the region until the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Once the front does move through, temperatures will fall through the 50s and 40s. Areas along and west of I-390 should reach the upper 30s by dawn Thursday, as will a few pockets across Cortland County. The rest of the region should be near or just above 40 degrees.

Thursday looks dry, but the cloud cover is a bit tricky to figure out. First, low thick clouds should be around for the morning hours. Often, these types of clouds stick around longer than the models indicate, so it would not be surprising to see overcast conditions persist into the afternoon.

There will also be a deck of thin clouds on the edge of low pressure developing along the East Coast. How far west these make it, and how long they remain is also a bit unclear.

Overall, it seems safe to expect more clouds than sun tomorrow, with the best chances for sun coming later in the day.

North winds of 5-10 mph will hold temperatures down with highs in the mid and upper 40s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday november 11 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Weather

By Friday, our region will be nestled between an unsettled pattern along the East Coast and a small, moisture-starved system tracking through the northern Great Lakes.

This should bring us periods of sunshine mixing with a variety of occasional clouds. Winds will start from the southeast early, swing around to the south, and then turn to the west by the afternoon. Wind speeds will be 5-10 mph.

Widespread low and mid 30s are likely to start Friday, but temperatures should bounce back to the low and mid 50s for the afternoon.

During the evening, the small Great Lakes system will pass through with an increase in clouds and a stray shower or two. Clouds behind this system will linger through the night and into early Saturday, holding temperatures in the 30s overnight.

A new batch of cloudiness will work in from the west, possibly arriving before the first clouds depart. Sunshine Saturday should be limited therefor.

Light northwest winds will blow most of the day, but high pressure will pass through late, causing the winds to go calm. The cool flow of air will hold temperatures in the mid 40s for highs with low and mid 30s overnight.

The next system rolls in for Sunday with periods of rain and some gusty winds. Temperatures should get a boost into the 50s from the warm sector of this system, but it will be back to the 40s on Monday with scattered rain showers.

The core of the cold air behind this system will move in Monday night and Tuesday with some scattered lake effect snow showers. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be in the 30s.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.